Gordon Johnson: Synthetic 10-year yield indicates bond market mispricing

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01.10.2026

Gordon Johnson: Synthetic 10-year yield indicates bond market mispricing — Synthetic 10-year yield signals mispricing

Gordon Johnson, CEO / analyst at GLJ Research, analyzed the current state of interest rates and yields. He noted that the synthetic 10-year yield, defined as CPI year-on-year plus the difference between 5y5y and 10-year breakeven rates, stands at 6.63 percent, just 20 basis points below the June high and 200 basis points above February levels. Johnson pointed out that the 5y5y rate is at 5.60 percent, up 4 basis points today. While not making a specific forecast, he argued that if forward rates on real yields are correct and CPI remains elevated, current yields appear significantly mispriced to the downside.

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Johnson previously commented on inflation data when the August PPI headline rose 0.4% month over month, with year-over-year figures at 5.5% after a July base revision, according to his note in August PPI rises more than expected after revised July data. He has also weighed in on equity market events, having flagged missing details on Cybercabs and the impact of a U.S. probe as Tesla shares fell 6 percent following the event, as reported in Lack of Cybercab details and probe impact Tesla shares. Johnson’s observations span both macroeconomic indicators and individual company developments.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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