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Greg Ip highlights that nominal gross domestic product and income growth in the U.S. are at their fastest pace since 2006, excluding the pandemic years.
He points out that a simple regression indicates current growth levels align with 10-year yields in a range of 5.5% to 5.8%.
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Greg Ip has previously observed that heightened media coverage can signal challenges in the bond market, as noted in a recent report. He has also addressed historical currency agreements, clarifying that the Plaza Accord was not imposed on Japan and was not responsible for the country’s subsequent economic stagnation in his analysis of the Maekawa Commission. These insights provide context for his examination of growth trends and yield relationships.