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Eric Basmajian reports that non-residential construction payrolls have reached a new high. Residential construction payrolls, in contrast, are currently near a cycle low.
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Basmajian previously observed that most major U.S. recessions since 1970 have included the largest drawdowns in housing and durable goods, with the 2001 downturn as a notable exception. He has also identified cyclical payrolls as a key indicator for assessing shifts in economic momentum. These past findings provide context for current trends in construction employment.