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U.S. retail sales increased by 0.8% in September after an upwardly revised 1.4% gain in August, but inflation accounted for much of the headline growth.
Diane Swonk said sales excluding autos and gasoline rose only 0.2% in August and were flat to down after adjusting for inflation, suggesting underlying consumer strength is weaker than the headline figures indicate.
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In previous commentary, Diane Swonk reported that the Federal Reserve was divided on the timing and amount of future rate hikes, citing details from the FOMC September minutes. She has also highlighted demographic differences in financial management, noting a poll where 53% of baby boomers expressed confidence managing debt. Swonk’s ongoing analysis often draws attention to underlying factors affecting consumer and policy trends.