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Eric Basmajian: Core inflation increases of 0.5% were twice as common as decreases under similar money and payroll growth

Eric Basmajian: Core inflation increases of 0.5% were twice as common as decreases under similar money and payroll growth
Core inflation patterns under current conditions

When money supply growth was between 4% and 8% and cyclical payroll growth was between 0% and 2%—matching current conditions—a 0.5% increase in core inflation was twice as common as a 0.5% decrease over the following 12 months. Eric Basmajian posted this statistical comparison.

Basmajian has previously observed that job seekers may face a weak labor market even when layoffs remain elevated above recession levels, according to his analysis of employment conditions. In earlier commentary, he urged policymakers to focus on major spending categories to address U.S. fiscal issues, noting that waste and fraud are minor contributors to overall expenditures in his remarks on fiscal challenges.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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