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The number of homes that have been approved for construction but not yet started by builders currently stands at 279,000, representing 2.37 months of permits and nearing the highest levels in over 25 years.
Eric Basmajian described housing as the weakest part of the economy and suggested it could be leading the path to a downturn, rather than artificial intelligence. He added that builders typically do not hold onto approvals if demand is strong.
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Basmajian previously observed that job seekers may encounter a weak labor market even when conditions are not consistent with a recession, as noted in his comments on labor market differences outside recessions. He has also analyzed inflation, finding that a 0.5% rise in core inflation was twice as likely as a decrease when money and payroll growth matched current levels, according to historical inflation patterns. These themes have framed Basmajian's recent economic commentary.