Brad Setser: Loss to U.S. Treasury from profit shifting likely underestimated

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Brad Setser: Loss to U.S. Treasury from profit shifting likely underestimated — U.S. Treasury loss from profit shifting

Brad Setser stated that the Congressional Budget Office and others have likely underestimated the loss to the U.S. Treasury caused by profit shifting to low tax jurisdictions.

He highlighted that Micron's U.S. federal tax on $100 billion in income is estimated at about $250 million, while Apple's U.S. tax on $160 billion in income is estimated at about $12 billion.

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Setser has recently highlighted other shifts in U.S. trade and fiscal data. He noted that U.S. imports of gold bars surged in the first quarter of 2025. In a separate analysis, Setser observed that China’s growth is relying more heavily on net exports in 2025.

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