Global Economics and Trade Policy by Brad Setser
Brad Setser is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, known for his granular analysis of global capital movements and sovereign reserves. With a background at the U.S. Treasury and National Economic Council, Setser publishes the blog Follow the Money, which is regularly cited by Bloomberg, The Financial Times, and IMF working papers.
In August 2025, Setser published a breakdown of China’s hidden USD treasury holdings, revealing a true exposure of USD 1.1 trillion, a figure that contextualized Bitcoin’s role in circumventing capital controls. His research is followed by thousands of crypto macro traders who rely on sovereign behavior models to predict stablecoin flows and reserve diversification.
Setser does not advocate for crypto, but his empirical frameworks provide critical context for understanding its emergence within global balance sheet strategies.
Brad Setser: Agencies in U.S. previously seen as safe assets amid Treasury issuance lag
Brad Setser described how, prior to the global financial crisis, the same dynamic played out with U.S. Agencies as Treasury issuance lagged the growth in dollar foreign exchange reserves. This ...
Imbalances concentrated in Asian countries with weak currencies may be a concern, Brad Setser argues
Brad Setser raised the question of whether imbalances in the global economy have reached problematic levels and noted that these imbalances are not accidental but are concentrated in Asian ...
Brad Setser: China current account surplus tied to high savings and reduced investment
High savings sustained by policy, and a reduced level of investment after the property bubble burst, remain the root cause of China's current account surplus, according to Nicholas Lardy. Brad ...
China relies on net exports for growth to an unusual extent, Brad Setser notes
China's economic growth continues to depend heavily on net exports, which have contributed 1.2 percentage points year-to-date, according to Brad Setser. Setser described this reliance as nearly ...
Brad Setser: China, Korea and Taiwan reached $200 billion trade surplus in September
The combined trade surplus of China, Korea and Taiwan in September was $200 billion. Brad Setser highlighted the scale of this surplus, noting the figure represents a significant economic ...
Greater borrowing needed to support consumption and economic growth, Brad Setser says
Brad Setser said China should increase borrowing and use it more efficiently to support consumption and bolster nominal GDP growth. Setser also commented that many people misunderstand economies ...
Brad Setser: CNY strength has not led to Chinese export outperformance
Brad Setser observes that the Chinese yuan (CNY) has never been strong enough to cause Chinese exports to systematically outperform global trade. He adds that while the CNY does impact trade ...
U.S. imported significant gold bars in Q1 2025, Brad Setser notes
Brad Setser highlights that tracking gold trade requires monitoring both bars and the gold line item in official statistics. He points out that the U.S. imported a notable amount of gold bars in ...
Brad Setser: Exchange rate adjustment is vital for China to balance global trade
Brad Setser highlights the importance of exchange rate adjustments in bringing more balance to China's global trade. According to Setser, domestic demand growth in China no longer spills over into ...
Anticipation of tariffs drove gold and pharmaceutical swings, Brad Setser observes
Brad Setser highlights unusual swings in gold and pharmaceutical trade caused by expectations of tariffs that did not come to pass. According to Setser, these market movements—first in imports, ...
Brad Setser: China shifts from property investments toward exports
Brad Setser observes that China has significantly rebalanced its economy by moving away from property investment and focusing more on exports. He notes that this trend is evident in the latest ...
China manufacturing surplus exceeds $4 trillion, Brad Setser notes
Brad Setser highlights China's substantial economic surpluses, citing a manufacturing surplus of over $4 trillion and a customs surplus above $2.5 trillion. Setser points to sustained 10% growth ...
Brad Setser: State investors shift away from conventional reserve assets for higher yield
Brad Setser highlights a shift among state investors away from conventional reserve assets, such as Treasuries. According to Setser, these investors are increasingly seeking higher-yielding ...
Korea records $50 billion customs surplus in September, Brad Setser notes
Brad Setser highlights the significant customs surplus reported by Korea for September. According to Setser, Korea posted a $50 billion surplus for the month, which would annualize to $600 billion ...
Brad Setser: Chinese equity outflows remain modest compared to current account surplus
Brad Setser discusses the scale of Chinese equity outflows, noting that net outflows, after accounting for foreign inflows into Chinese stocks, have been modest both in absolute terms and relative ...
Surplus economies dollars not flowing to U.S. Treasuries, Brad Setser notes
Brad Setser raises the point that economic surpluses and deficits are fundamentally connected, suggesting that one cannot exist without the other. He observes that, at present, the dollars held ...
Brad Setser: Net supply of duration trends in U.S. bond markets
Brad Setser shares a graph illustrating the net supply of duration in U.S. bond markets over time. The post highlights changing patterns in the issuance and availability of longer-term U.S. ...
Modest PBOC fx asset growth may fit rising CNY lending, Brad Setser notes
Brad Setser indicates that the increase in foreign exchange assets in a different People’s Bank of China (PBOC) data set has been relatively modest, which is in line with recent trends. He ...
Brad Setser: IMF should not accept China’s first loan effort
Brad Setser questions the quality of China's first loan-related effort submitted to the IMF. He points out that not all loans originate from state commercial banks, noting that institutions like ...
Japanese funding remains stable globally, Brad Setser notes
Brad Setser observes that the world has adapted to a period with limited direct Japanese funding. He notes that total holdings have been largely unchanged over the past five years, with ...
Brad Setser: Euro area core GDP should exclude Ireland in calculations
Brad Setser calls for the Euro area’s core GDP to be calculated without Ireland. He notes that, in practice, the European Central Bank already follows this approach and suggests the ...
