Britain secures Belgium gas import capacity before winter supply risk

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Britain secures Belgium gas import

Highlights

National Gas secured extra import capacity from Belgium via the Interconnector pipeline, reversing a cut and restoring winter capacity to 27.8GW from 16.5GW.
Ofgem warns of potential negative supply margins during very rare stress events, though the gas system is expected to meet demand in most scenarios.
Interconnector's new arrangement costs households about £1.19 annually, amid falling UK gas output and the government's approval of the Jackdaw gasfield and pending Rosebank oilfield decision.

Winter capacity deal and supply warning

As reported by Financial Times, National Gas has agreed extra pipeline capacity from Belgium by striking a last-minute deal with the owners of the Interconnector pipeline to reverse planned cuts for this winter.

Ofgem says Britain could have faced a negative supply margin, where supply does not meet demand, on a very cold day if major infrastructure was unavailable and no action had been taken. The regulator adds that the gas system is expected to meet demand in the vast majority of anticipated circumstances, but warns that very rare stress conditions could still have significant consequences.

Interconnector says it will reinstate capacity to 27.8GW for the winter period. The pipeline, which links Zeebrugge in Belgium with Bacton in Norfolk, had reduced capacity to 16.5GW from October 1 because of high fixed operating costs and uncertain demand.

Rising import dependence and policy implications

Britain remains heavily dependent on gas for heating and electricity even as it shifts toward lower-carbon energy. Official statistics show gas accounts for about 35 per cent of total energy demand in 2025, while domestic production now covers just under half of UK demand, leaving the balance to be met by imports from Norway, continental Europe and LNG shipments including from the U.S.

Ofgem estimates the Interconnector arrangement will cost households about £1.19 a year. The pressure on supply security comes after years of falling UK gas production, with annual demand broadly declining but peak daily demand easing more slowly.

The supply deal also lands as the government weighs wider fossil fuel decisions. The UK approved the Jackdaw gasfield on Wednesday after years of legal and political disputes, while Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh says she, rather than Prime Minister Andy Burnham, will decide whether the Rosebank oilfield proceeds under a quasi-judicial process.

Fahnbulleh also says ministers may need mitigations for some low-income households if they move ahead with plans to remove standing charges from gas bills. Removing those fixed daily charges while raising the unit price of gas could lower bills for lower-usage households but increase costs for heavier users.

In our earlier article on the conflict-driven surge in oil shipping costs, we explained how attacks and rerouting on major tanker corridors have sharply lifted freight and insurance premiums, turning transport into a much larger share of the delivered oil price. We also noted that import-dependent markets are hit hardest, as higher logistics costs feed through to fuel prices and, ultimately, broader consumer inflation.

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