Marche rating affirmation keeps region aligned with Italy sovereign cap

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Marche rating affirmation

Highlights

Fitch affirmed Marche's long-term IDRs at BBB+ with Stable Outlooks, mirroring Italy's sovereign cap, and maintained its Standalone Credit Profile at aa.
Marche's direct debt is projected to rise modestly from EUR320 million at end-2025 to about EUR350 million by 2030, with a debt payback ratio averaging 2.2x in 2028-2030.
Marche's liquidity remains strong with cash consistently above EUR350 million, access to a EUR300 million credit line, and a liquidity coverage ratio expected above 8x.

Credit assessment and rating drivers

As reported by Fitch Ratings, the agency has affirmed Marche's long-term foreign- and local-currency Issuer Default Ratings at BBB+ with Stable Outlooks, while keeping the region's Standalone Credit Profile at aa.

Fitch says the ratings reflect an expectation that Marche's tight operating balance is partly offset by a controlled debt trend and a positive cash buffer. The agency adds that the region's IDRs are capped by Italy's BBB+ sovereign rating, so the outlook on Marche follows that of the sovereign.

In Fitch's assessment, Marche has a midrange risk profile and a financial profile in the aaa category under the agency's rating case. The region's operating revenue is mainly tax-based, with taxes accounting for 83% of operating revenue over the past five years, and more than 80% of that tax income coming from the national healthcare fund, which helps stabilize revenue.

Fitch says state-directed changes to revenue sources from 2027 onward will alter the composition of operating revenue without materially changing its size. The agency also says Marche's economy, marked by fairly low growth and reliance on small businesses, limits tax-raising potential, although it estimates the region could lift operating revenue by nearly 5% through a higher personal income tax surcharge.

On spending, Fitch describes Marche's cost structure as largely predictable but rigid because healthcare dominates expenditure. Operating expenditure represented 90% of total expenditure in 2021-2025, and healthcare accounted for 76% in 2025, while flexibility is largely limited to capital spending that averaged 10% of total expenditure in the same period.

Debt position and regional financing outlook

At end-2025, Marche's debt stood at EUR320 million and Fitch characterizes it as low risk, mostly fixed rate and fully amortizing, with no foreign-exchange exposure. The agency says the main lenders are the European Investment Bank and Italy's Ministry of Finance, together accounting for more than 61% of debt, while national prudential rules support debt management.

Fitch also highlights liquidity as a credit strength. Total cash has remained above EUR350 million in the last five years, including EUR230 million of unrestricted cash, and the region also has access to a committed credit line from its treasurer of up to about EUR300 million, as well as support from Cassa Depositi e Prestiti as lender of last resort for the Italian public sector.

Under Fitch's rating case, direct debt rises only modestly to about EUR350 million by 2030, from EUR320 million at end-2025, while the operating balance falls to around EUR90 million by 2030 as operating expenditure rises faster than revenue. Even so, the agency expects the debt payback ratio to remain healthy, averaging 2.2x in 2028-2030, and says net adjusted debt stays below 6% of operating revenue.

Fitch says new borrowing and available cash complement state and EU grants for Marche's EUR2.3 billion investment plan. The agency also points to a high likelihood of extraordinary support from the Italian government for ordinary statute regions, and says Marche's F1 short-term rating is supported by strong debt and liquidity robustness and a liquidity coverage ratio expected to remain above 8x in its rating case.

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