Nvidia stock gains as US export controls drive Southeast Asia AI chip gray market

Traders Union
All News
Stocks
Nvidia gains 4.04% to $220.91 today

Highlights

US export restrictions are fueling a multi-billion-dollar gray market for Nvidia-based AI chips in Southeast Asia.
Major Asian firms like Moonshot and Alibaba are securing Nvidia compute through proxy services, reflecting persistent demand despite direct access barriers.
Shares of Nvidia display a strong bullish trend above key support, with an expected trading range of $210.15 to $231.67 over the next several days.

Overseas gray-market demand rises as US export controls tighten

The implementation of US export controls has triggered the rise of a multi-billion-dollar gray market for AI chips in Southeast Asia, according to MarketBeat. This action has prompted firms such as Moonshot and Alibaba to access Nvidia-based compute through proxy cloud services, indicating that regulatory barriers are increasing overseas demand via unofficial channels. The ongoing workarounds highlight the persistent appeal of Nvidia's technology despite tightened direct access in key international markets.

Mixed momentum emerges as NVDA approaches overbought territory

Technical analysis on the H4 chart pinpoints NVDA above the MA-20 at $202.89 and MA-50 at $203.11, with the daily MA-200 well below at $193.4. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily timeframe sits at $202.21, reinforcing immediate support. Momentum signals remain mixed: RSI is at 61.66 (Buy) and CCI supports further upside, while Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power mark overbought conditions that may curb near-term gains. MACD and ADX are neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator delivers strong bullish confirmation.

Bullish breakout or range consolidation likely on volatility triggers

Over the next two to three trading days, NVDA is forecast to fluctuate within a volatility band of $210.15 to $231.67. The likelihood of an upward move is estimated at 75%, compared to 25% odds for a decline. Baseline expectations point to consolidation inside the range, while a break above $231.67 would confirm a new bullish scenario. Conversely, a drop below $210.15 would be needed to confirm a bearish reversal.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees NVDA’s technical setup as supported but not without risks. He notes that workaround demand from overseas gray markets is actively shaping sentiment, yet momentum indicators send a mixed signal. Resistance at $231.67 is a key test, while support below $210.15 could tip the scales sharply. "I remain defensive until NVDA confirms a breakout above $231.67 — otherwise, risk of reversal remains front and center."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia was benefiting from AI-driven demand and positive sector read-throughs, even as selective investor response to earnings and spending weighed on peers. The current analysis reinforces Nvidia's resilience in the face of global regulatory constraints, with upcoming price action hinging on whether the $231.67 resistance or $210.15 support is decisively breached.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.