Tesla stock targets $340 as SpaceX lockup raises volatility
Tesla shares continue to show positive momentum after decisively breaking above $314, while the first major expiration of SpaceX’s lockup restrictions creates an additional source of volatility across the broader Musk trade.
On August 6, SpaceX entered the first major stage of its lockup expiration. Up to 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible for sale, potentially leading to a significant increase in market supply after SpaceX shares fell approximately 14% during the previous session. Elon Musk’s stake is not included in this tranche and remains subject to restrictions until 2027.
The event has no direct fundamental impact on Tesla. However, selling pressure in SpaceX could partially spill over into Tesla through the Musk trade, as investors may reduce their overall exposure to Musk-linked companies amid rising volatility.
Tesla stock could retest $340 after a pullback to $314
Tesla shares confirmed a breakout above resistance near $314 and extended their recovery. However, momentum was not strong enough to reach the $340 target, with the price stalling around $330.The $314 level remains the key threshold for today’s trading session. If sellers push the price back toward this area and secure a sustained move below it, the risk of another test of the psychological $300 level will increase. At this stage, however, such a scenario appears less likely.
The base-case scenario remains a short-term pullback toward the $317–314 range, followed by another attempt by buyers to regain control and push the price toward the previously identified target near $340.
SpaceX lockup could trigger volatility across the Musk trade
SpaceX’s first lockup expiration could temporarily increase volatility in Tesla shares. Selling pressure may trigger a decline, but this risk is already widely anticipated, meaning the stock could also move in the opposite direction and defy market expectations.
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