Tariffs and aluminum cost increases: MNST technical outlook

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Monster Beverage drops 4.41% to $90.01

Highlights

Monster Beverage stock posted record quarterly net sales of $2.54 billion, up 20.2%, driven by strong international growth and product demand.
Net income rose 19.6% to $584.5 million as operational leverage boosted profitability, with a 2-for-1 stock split set for August 2026.
Shares face strong bearish momentum, trading below key moving averages, with a projected range of $86.07 to $92.21 and 77% probability of further downside.

International sales growth and stock split as margin risks persist

Monster Beverage Corporation posted record net sales of $2.54 billion for the second quarter of 2026, a 20.2% increase from a year earlier, underlining significant international expansion and robust product demand, according to Markets Businessinsider. Net income for the period rose 19.6% to $584.5 million, highlighting operational leverage and profitability despite rising input costs. The company also announced a 2-for-1 stock split effective after close on August 10, 2026, which is positioned to increase the stock's accessibility and potential liquidity on the market. However, persistent cost pressures from tariffs and a higher Midwest aluminum premium continue to weigh on input costs and could constrain margins, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish signals intensify as support holds above long-term average

MNST is trading below its MA-20 and MA-50 levels on the working timeframe, reflecting short- and medium-term technical resistance. The daily MA-200 sits well below the current price, reinforcing longer-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun at $92.36 is acting as immediate resistance for any rebound attempts. Bearish momentum dominates the indicator set: MACD is on a sell signal, ADX is neutral, and RSI is at 25.22, with Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all signaling deeply oversold or strong seller conditions. The Awesome Oscillator is also in negative territory, substantiating the current downward move with consistent momentum signals across key indicators.

Consolidation likely amid strong downside risk

The projected range for MNST over the short term is $86.07 to $92.21, capturing typical volatility relative to current levels. There is a 23% probability of a move higher from here, whereas a 77% likelihood is assigned to further downside. Baseline expectations see price consolidating within this corridor unless key technical levels are broken. A sustained bullish reaction requires a clear break above the $92.36 resistance; conversely, a move below support opens the path toward the lower end of the projected range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes that despite Monster Beverage's record sales and profit growth, cost pressures and overwhelmingly negative technical signals outweigh recent positive news. He sees key resistance at $92.36, with the $86.07–$92.21 range likely to contain price action in the short term. The probability for further downside is significant while momentum remains bearish. "Until MNST convincingly closes above $92.36, I remain cautious and expect sellers to stay in control."

Earlier, analysts noted that Monster Beverage stock faced persistent seller pressure amid sector volatility and clear technical headwinds. The latest technical and fundamental developments reinforce continued downside risk, making a sustained move above $92.36 a critical pivot for any potential near-term reversal.

Source of Data: MNST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.