Tesla stock recovers as Musk trade sentiment improves
Tesla is recovering after rebounding from the $314–317 area, while its commercial ties with SpaceX continue to strengthen. The short-term target remains $337–340, while the U.S. CPI release on August 12 could add volatility.
Tesla disclosed that it recognized $318 million in revenue from Megapack sales to SpaceX in the second quarter, bringing the first-half total to $405 million. This confirms the growing commercial relationship between Musk’s companies and provides additional support for Tesla’s energy business.
At the same time, uncertainty remains around the expansion of FSD in Europe. The data used by the Dutch regulator to assess FSD safety remain confidential ahead of further consideration of the technology at the European level. For Tesla, a European FSD launch remains a potentially significant source of additional software revenue, meaning the regulatory process continues to matter for the company’s valuation.
Rebound from $314–317 restores bullish momentum
The base-case scenario from the previous analysis has fully materialized. The stock pulled back into the identified $317–314 zone before recovering bullish momentum.The short-term target remains $337–340.
However, the current technical momentum may not be sufficient to close the post-earnings gap near $373.
A move toward this level will likely require a strong fundamental catalyst capable of generating a significant increase in demand for the stock.
SpaceX rebound supports the broader Musk trade
SpaceX’s recovery provides an additional boost to sentiment around Tesla. The expiration of the first major lockup on August 6 did not trigger the expected increase in selling pressure, with SpaceX stock rising 6.1% on the same day.For Tesla, this is a positive signal within the broader Musk trade. Commercial ties between the companies are becoming stronger through Megapack sales, AI infrastructure, and joint projects.
The next external test will be the release of July U.S. CPI data on August 12. Given the technology sector’s sensitivity to interest-rate expectations, a significant deviation in inflation from forecasts could noticeably increase volatility in Tesla stock and the broader market.
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