SK hynix shares recover as strong AI demand meets limited upside
SK hynix is gradually recovering from the sharp sell-off that followed its June all-time high, but after an almost tenfold increase over the previous 12 months, the scope for further multiple expansion appears limited.
According to its half-year report, SK hynix generated ₩17.61 trillion in revenue from a single major external customer widely identified by the market as Nvidia. That represents roughly 13.35% of total revenue for the first half of the year.
Fundamentally, demand for AI memory therefore remains strong. However, after the company’s substantial increase in market value, investors are gradually shifting their attention from the strength of demand itself to how long the current cycle can sustain such growth rates.
After falling more than 58% from its late-June peak, SK hynix shares are gradually recovering. Over the next month, the base case remains a move toward ₩2,000,000, where the 50-day SMA is located.
Long-term overextension limits the upside case
A sustained extension of the rally looks less likely for now. Through the end of 2026, the base case remains consolidation within the ₩1,750,000–2,000,000 range.
The shares gained roughly 1,000% from August 2025 to the June all-time high of ₩2,987,000. Even after the subsequent deep correction, such an outsized prior advance leaves the stock technically overheated on a broader time horizon.
For that reason, a recovery toward the 50-day SMA is better viewed for now as a rebound following a sharp sell-off rather than the beginning of another rally of similar magnitude.
Profit-taking risk builds across AI chip stocks
The main risk to a further recovery is another wave of profit-taking across the AI sector. The Wall Street Journal estimated that nine major technology companies have around $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, much of it linked to future AI infrastructure, compared with roughly $600 billion in actual capital expenditure over the latest reporting year.
Signs of more cautious positioning have already emerged. Goldman Sachs previously noted that hedge funds’ aggregate net exposure to a broad basket of AI chip stocks had fallen to its lowest level in a year, a move linked to profit-taking after the sector’s strong rally.
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