Retail stocks, oil shares draw market focus ahead of earnings

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Retail & oil stocks earnings

Highlights

Target shares have risen over 56% in 2026, yet LSEG data indicates analysts have a hold rating and expect about 6% downside.
Walmart remains on course for a fourth consecutive annual gain with only 3% year-to-date growth, analysts projecting 20% upside despite a near-term downtrend.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are rallying toward 52-week highs, expanding market attention beyond retail to ongoing energy-sector strength amid high crude prices.

Retail earnings setup and stock levels

As reported by CNBC, Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, is watching Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target and Walmart as they release quarterly results this week, while only about a dozen S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report.

Woods calls Target the "story of the year" and says new CEO Michael Fiddelke has not received enough credit for the retailer’s turnaround. Target shares are up more than 56% in 2026, which puts the stock on track for its first winning year in five, although LSEG data show the average analyst keeps a hold rating and sees about 6% downside.

He says resistance is forming near $155 a share and adds that a pullback toward $140 could offer an entry point. Target trades slightly lower on Monday at roughly $153, and Woods says it is a stock investors may want to fade.

Woods also says Walmart is in a near-term downtrend and facing a double top around $135 a share. The stock has gained about 3% in 2026, trailing the broader S&P 500, but it remains on course for a fourth straight annual gain.

LSEG-polled analysts remain positive on Walmart, with the average rating at buy and an implied upside of more than 20% over the next 12 months. Woods says the latest earnings report is unlikely to challenge that double-top level, but it should offer a read on consumer behavior in what he describes as a K-shaped economy.

Home Depot, meanwhile, is down nearly 2% in 2026 ahead of its report. Most analysts rate the stock buy, and the average price target implies about 10% upside, while Woods says traders are watching its 200-day moving average and an inverted head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.

If Home Depot moves above $355 a share, Woods says it could advance into a $380 to $400 range. Shares trade around $338 on Monday, and he describes the company as a "prove-me stock" in a discretionary sector that has been under pressure.

Consumer and energy signals in focus

With retail earnings taking center stage, this week’s reports are set to serve as a test of how different consumer segments are holding up. The contrast between cautious chart signals in some names and upbeat analyst targets suggests investors are weighing technical weakness against expectations for resilient spending.

Beyond retail, Woods says he is also watching oil companies as crude prices remain elevated. He says Exxon Mobil and Chevron both appear to be rallying toward 52-week highs, extending investor focus from consumer demand trends to energy-sector momentum.

Our earlier article on U.S. retailers facing a tougher consumer environment explained how stretched household budgets were forcing shoppers to become more selective, pushing chains to define “value” beyond just low prices. We highlighted the contrasting approaches of Target and Walmart ahead of earnings, with Target leaning on major merchandise refreshes to boost traffic while Walmart doubled down on low prices, convenience, and fast delivery to retain bargain-focused customers.

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