Intesa Sanpaolo buyback supports shares amid RSI signal overheating
Intesa Sanpaolo continues to trade near recent highs after gaining 18% since late June, but growing technical overheating is gradually increasing the risk of a correction. At the same time, the bank’s large buyback program continues to provide fundamental support.
Intesa Sanpaolo said it repurchased around 21.9 million of its own shares for €150.2 million between August 10 and August 14, at an average price of €6.859. The shares are intended to be cancelled.
Since the program began on July 6, the bank has bought back around 155.3 million shares, equivalent to roughly 0.88% of its share capital, spending almost €998 million. The total program could reach €2.3 billion, making the buyback a meaningful source of support for the shares.
RSI and 200-day SMA point to overheating
Intesa Sanpaolo shares have gained 18% since June 29, while the RSI (14) has moved into overbought territory. Another sign of technical overheating is the stock’s distance from the 200-day SMA, which is also around 18%.The combination of a rapid advance, an overbought RSI and a substantial gap above the long-term moving average increases the probability of a correction over the coming weeks.
If this scenario plays out, the nearest major target would be support around €6.71. A pullback toward this level would help ease some of the technical overheating after the strong summer rally.
Profit-taking does not weaken the fundamental outlook
From a fundamental perspective, the large buyback remains a positive factor. By mid-August, Intesa had already completed almost €1 billion of the planned €2.3 billion program, continuing to reduce the number of shares outstanding.
However, support from the buyback does not rule out short-term profit-taking after an 18% advance. For now, a potential decline toward €6.71 is therefore better viewed as a technical normalization after a strong move rather than a sign of deterioration in the bank’s fundamentals.
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