AAPL remains near $310 on August 26 after several sessions of weak performance, with the market reacting less to the already known strong earnings report and focusing more on the quality of future profit growth. In the third fiscal quarter, Apple increased revenue by 16% y/y to $109.4 billion, while EPS rose to $2.02 from $1.57 a year earlier, although part of the result was supported by tariff refunds of around $0.11 per share.
Component costs create new margin pressure
An additional risk is the rising cost of components, especially memory, where shortages linked to AI demand have already forced Apple to raise prices on some Mac and iPad models. A new source of pressure is emerging from Services, which has traditionally been viewed as Apple’s most stable and high-margin segment. In the June quarter, Services revenue reached $30.7 billion, below Wall Street expectations of around $31.4 billion, while segment gross margin came in at 75.6%, also slightly below forecasts.
U.S. data send mixed signal for AAPL
Today’s macroeconomic data add uncertainty. The second estimate of U.S. GDP confirmed growth of only 1.5% annualized in the second quarter after 2.1% in the first quarter, although private domestic demand looked noticeably stronger: real final sales to private domestic purchasers were revised up to 4.2%. At the same time, headline PCE rose by 0.2% m/m in July and remained at 3.7% y/y, while core PCE held at 3.3% y/y. For Apple, this is rather a mixed signal, with resilient consumption supporting demand for devices and Services, while accelerating inflation reduces the likelihood of rapid Fed easing and could keep the discount rate elevated.
$305 remains critical downside level
Nevertheless, as long as the price holds above support in the $307-305 area, the chances of a recovery toward $313-315 remain high, while a break above $315 could improve the near-term outlook and bring $320 back into focus; a loss of $305, as I warned in Apple holds near $310 as investors reassess AI strategy and valuation, would increase the risk of a move toward $300 and then $295-292.
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