AAPL is holding around $314-315 on August 28 after gaining 0.36% on Thursday, and in the short term the market’s attention is increasingly shifting toward the quality of the next sales cycle. One of the most relevant factors now is not simply the launch of new iPhones, but the rising share of more expensive Pro models in emerging markets, especially India, Brazil, and Mexico.
According to Omdia estimates, for Apple, a higher premium mix could generate more revenue than simple shipment growth, especially if the company continues to expand trade-in and financing programs. This fits well with the latest earnings report, where iPhone revenue growth of 22% y/y to $54.25 billion was driven primarily by stronger sales of Pro models.
Mac pricing adds upside and margin risk
Another factor in recent days is related to Mac and Apple’s own chips. The company introduced new Mac Mini and Mac Studio models powered by M6, M5 Pro, M5 Max, and M5 Ultra, claiming multiple-fold gains in AI performance. At the same time, prices increased by $100-200, while previous generations had already faced shortages due to strong demand for high-performance configurations and limited memory supply.
For AAPL, this is both an advantage and a risk: Apple has an opportunity to increase average selling prices and monetize demand for on-device AI more effectively, but higher memory costs and potential supply constraints could put pressure on product margin. The latest quarterly report directly indicated that higher memory costs had already partially offset the improvement in product mix and tariff refunds.
September event becomes next major catalyst
The next major catalyst remains Apple’s September 9 event. The company has officially confirmed the date, while the market expects an update to the iPhone Pro lineup and, according to industry media reports, the potential debut of Apple’s first foldable iPhone. For the stock, what will matter more than the feature set itself is the pricing architecture of the lineup and Apple’s ability to sustain ASP growth after a very strong June quarter.
In Q3, revenue reached a record $109.4 billion, up 16% y/y, EPS increased by 29% to $2.02, and Services generated $30.74 billion. Therefore, the September launch will need to confirm that iPhone growth and a more expensive product mix can continue without excessive dependence on one-off factors.
$320 remains key breakout level
As long as AAPL trades above $310-308, the chances of testing and breaking resistance around $320 remain relatively high. A move above the latter level would open the way toward $325-328, where the stock may come under moderate pressure; a loss of the above-mentioned support, as I warned in Apple faces valuation test as September product cycle approaches, would trigger a decline toward $305-300.
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