Walmart stock stalls below resistance with technicals still weak: weekly forecast

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Walmart slips 1.36% this week

Highlights

Shares of Walmart declined 1.36% over the past week to $105.67, closing near the bottom of the recent range.
The stock trades below its main moving averages with strong downside momentum and a bearish long-term technical structure.
Walmart shares are projected to trade between $104.03 and $112.16 next week with a high probability of further decreases if support at $105.66 is broken.

Tariff refund and delivery partnerships reshape margin and pricing sentiment

Walmart Inc. received a $2.9 billion tariff refund from the U.S. government, as confirmed by Yahoo Finance and TipRanks, following a recent Supreme Court ruling. Management indicated the funds will be used to lower prices for shoppers, which may affect margins and pricing strategies in the near term. Additional focus is on Walmart's new delivery partnership with Dunkin' Donuts and the rollout of drone delivery trials in Chile.

Downside momentum persists as support holds under rising volatility

On the daily chart, the technical setup remains weak with price action anchored to key support at $105.66. Downside momentum dominates, as shown by a Strong Sell reading from the MACD at -2.04 and a Sell signal from the HMA. Volatility rose to 3.45% in the past week, with the move characterized by a contained move within a narrow range. Resistance is found overhead at $108.61 and at the Kijun level of $109.57, while momentum oscillators like RSI (43.2) remain neutral.

Consolidation likely next week unless key support or resistance breaks

For the coming trading week, Walmart shares are expected to trade between $104.03 and $112.16. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a further decrease, with very low probability of an advance. The base case is for price to consolidate within the current range, anchored by support at $105.66. A break above $108.61 would begin to improve the outlook, while a push below $105.66 opens up risks toward the lower bound of the range at $104.03.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the current setup for Walmart shares as a constructive opportunity for patient investors. He notes that the recent $2.9 billion tariff refund positions Walmart to strengthen its pricing strategy and enhance customer value, which could act as a cushion during periods of price pressure. While technicals reflect persistent weakness with strong downside momentum and shares holding key support at $105.66, the probability of price consolidation within the $104.03–$112.16 range remains high. News of innovations such as the Dunkin' Donuts delivery partnership and drone trials in Chile signal fundamental resilience underpinning longer-term upside. "I believe Walmart’s strategic moves, coupled with support at $105.66, create opportunity for buyers to gain exposure ahead of any rebound."

Earlier, analysts noted that Walmart’s shares remained under persistent bearish pressure, with technical signals pointing to continued vulnerability. The current setup reinforces this cautious outlook, with consolidation near support suggesting the next major move will depend on whether $105.66 holds or gives way to renewed downside risk.

Source of Data: WMT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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