BT Group trades below 200-day SMA despite supportive Ofcom decision
BT Group has held key support at GBX 198, although the stock remains below the 200-day SMA. At the same time, Ofcom’s latest decision provides a more favorable backdrop for Openreach’s long-term transition from copper to full-fibre infrastructure.
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Ofcom has eased the conditions governing Openreach’s transition away from copper infrastructure. From April 1, 2029, Openreach will be able to adjust wholesale prices for copper connections in areas where FTTP is already available and ultrafast broadband reaches at least 90% of premises. The previous threshold was 100%.
Ofcom also notes that maintaining copper and fibre networks simultaneously is costly, while a gradual retirement of the copper network should free up resources for further investment.
BT Group remains trapped below the 200 SMA
BT Group shares managed to hold the previously highlighted GBX 198 support, but downside risk remains as the stock has yet to reclaim the 200-day SMA near GBX 201.
This level should determine the next short-term direction. A sustained move above it would create room for another test of resistance at GBX 205.
If sellers push the price below GBX 198 and establish it beneath support, the next target would be GBX 194.50.
Geopolitical risks add another challenge for BT Group
Beyond the technical setup, pressure could intensify as the UK macro backdrop deteriorates. The U.S. and Iran have stepped up attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, while Brent has climbed back above $100 as traffic through one of the world’s key energy routes declines.
For the UK market, the main risk is another wave of inflationary pressure through higher energy, logistics and consumer costs.
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