Can Nvidia fill the September gap after reclaiming momentum above $220?
Nvidia is once again approaching an area where buyers will have to prove that the latest rebound has real staying power. Today, another source of risk will enter the picture as the market moves toward the close.
231.65
243.03
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on September 17 that he expects the company to sell roughly twice as many chips next year as it does today. He tied that outlook to continued growth in AI investment across virtually every major economy.
Today also brings quarterly derivatives expiration, commonly known as quadruple witching. Several major categories of options and futures expire at the same time, which can push trading volumes and intraday volatility noticeably higher into the close.
$221 becomes the key level for today
The setup from the previous analysis played out in full, with Nvidia rebounding to the $220 target.
For today’s session, $221 is the key resistance level.
A clean break above it would put the unfilled September 9 gap near $223.50 back in focus. That remains the base-case scenario.
Extra caution is warranted late in the session, however, as quadruple witching can amplify price swings during the final 15 minutes of regular trading.
A drop and sustained move below $216.50 would invalidate the bullish setup. In that case, the risk of a decline toward the 50-day SMA near $214 would rise sharply.
Oil remains the key external variable
High oil prices remain one of the main external risks for the technology sector because expensive energy keeps inflation concerns alive and adds pressure to bond yields. Together, elevated energy costs and borrowing costs have already revived worries about a stagflationary backdrop.
For Nvidia, the relationship is fairly straightforward. As long as oil stays above $100, it remains a meaningful macro headwind. A sustained decline in crude prices, by contrast, could remove one of the biggest external pressures on richly valued technology stocks.
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