U.S. export controls on advanced chips to China keep Nvidia stock trading flat

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Nvidia slips 0.1% to $219.11 today

Highlights

U.S. export controls restrict Nvidia from selling its most advanced AI chips to China, limiting growth in a key international market.
Nvidia can only ship the less advanced H20 model to China, with flagship chips like H100 and A100 banned and lower-end models facing a 25% tariff.
Nvidia stock trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with mixed momentum signals, expected to range between $214.2 to $224.03 in the next sessions.

China AI chip restrictions and tariffs curb Nvidia's growth prospects

U.S. authorities have maintained strict export controls on advanced Nvidia chips to China, only allowing the less advanced H20 model through legal channels, according to Aroged. This policy limits Nvidia's ability to serve the Chinese market with its most advanced AI products and restricts growth prospects in a major international segment. In addition, the prohibition on flagship chips like the H100, A100, and Blackwell families, with restricted access and a 25% tariff on certain lower-end models, further narrows the company’s revenue channels and product mix in China. China’s persistent drive to reduce dependence on American AI chips, as reported by Tomshardware, adds to the strategic uncertainty surrounding Nvidia’s operations in the region.

Conflicting momentum and resistance shape uncertain technical outlook

NVDA is currently trading below its MA-20 and MA-50 on the H4 timeframe, while remaining above the MA-200, which supports the long-term structure. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $221.85 as immediate resistance. MACD on the H4 chart is providing a Sell signal, with ADX showing neutral momentum. RSI is mildly bullish at 51.27, and both CCI and Awesome Oscillator are neutral. However, Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power both register overbought readings that signal recent buyer dominance. The divergence between momentum and oscillators highlights short-term uncertainty in directional conviction.

Upward bias prevails amid volatility and breakout potential

Over the next 2–3 sessions, the expected trading range for NVDA is $214.2 to $224.03, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is estimated at 70%, suggesting a higher likelihood of a rise, but a downside move remains possible. Baseline expectation is for sideways trade within this band. A breakout above $221.85 would open a move toward $224, while a fall below $214.2 could trigger a deeper pullback into lower support zones.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that U.S. export controls continue to limit Nvidia’s upside in China, but the company remains structurally strong over the long term. He sees near-term uncertainty on technical charts as policy headwinds and oscillators both create mixed signals for directional conviction. The expert remains optimistic given Nvidia’s global positioning and robust long-term trend. "If NVDA consolidates above $221.85, I expect renewed bullish momentum with strong fundamentals likely to support further gains."

Previously it was reported that Nvidia's momentum was bolstered by innovation in energy-efficient data center technology and broad technical support. The current analysis introduces heightened regulatory pressures and trade limitations with China, underscoring $221.85 as a key resistance level that traders should monitor for potential breakout momentum.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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