ConocoPhillips stock price prediction: Selloff continues toward $123.23 support

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ConocoPhillips drops 3% to $127.85 today

Highlights

Shares of ConocoPhillips delivered a 36.3% year-to-date return and a 47.9% total shareholder return over the past year.
Sustained institutional ownership and strong historical performance contribute to the stock's ongoing appeal despite broader selling pressure.
ConocoPhillips stock faces near-term selling momentum and oversold technicals, with price expected to remain between $123.23 and $132.47 barring a breakout.

Shareholder returns bolster ownership amid persistent selling pressure

ConocoPhillips has posted a 36.3% year-to-date return and a 47.9% total shareholder return over the past year, according to Simplywall. These results reflect realized value for shareholders and help sustain institutional ownership, with positive momentum in total returns serving as a reference for fund flows. This historical performance continues to frame the stock's appeal, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Downside momentum intensifies as resistance zones and oversold signals align

COP recently broke below the $132.58 MA-20 and $135.68 MA-50 on the hourly chart, highlighting short- and medium-term resistance zones. Price still holds above the longer-term MA-200 at $114.88, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $135.68 reinforcing immediate resistance. Momentum indicators remain negative: MACD and ADX both confirm a strong sell bias, while RSI at 27.16, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all indicate deeply oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power confirms seller dominance intraday, and Awesome Oscillator is neutral. No divergence is present across leading momentum signals.

High downside risk persists as narrow range caps bullish reversal

In the short term, COP is expected to trade within the $123.23 to $132.47 range, representing the volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is very low while the risk of a further decline remains high, making a sustained reversal unlikely in the immediate sessions. If COP can overcome resistance at $135.68, a bullish scenario emerges; a break below $123.23 support would instead signal additional downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees ConocoPhillips maintaining its appeal for institutional holders thanks to robust total returns over the past year. He believes recent selling pressure and negative momentum may keep COP in a volatile band, but the strong realized gains should limit sustained downside. The expert notes macro and fundamental factors continue to support long-term interest, even as technical resistance at $135.68 constrains short-term upside. "With solid total returns in place, I expect any near-term weakness to draw interest from long-term investors, especially if price approaches support at $123.23."

Earlier, analysts noted that ConocoPhillips was exhibiting short-term technical weakness amid continued underlying operational strength. The current analysis adds that, despite strong total returns, bearish momentum persists and traders should closely monitor a potential breakdown below the $123.23 support as a signal for further downside risk.

Source of Data: COP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.