Project Jupiter AI data center delays: Can Oracle stock avoid deeper losses?

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Oracle sinks 7.37% today to $133.91

Highlights

Oracle Corporation is undergoing internal restructuring with double-digit percentage layoffs in some teams and a force majeure notice issued for its Project Jupiter AI data center in New Mexico.
Oracle declared a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend for October 2026 and announced new digital payment and AI-based platform enhancements.
Shares of Oracle stock are sharply down 7.37% to $133.91, trading below key moving averages with dominant seller pressure and a projected range of $129.72 to $144.07 over the next 2 to 3 sessions.

Layoffs and project delays as restructuring coincides with cloud headwinds

Oracle Corporation has announced a new round of layoffs affecting double-digit percentages within some teams, a move that signals internal restructuring and may reflect efforts to address slowing business in key areas. According to Coincentral, Oracle also issued a force majeure notice to the developer of its Project Jupiter AI data center in New Mexico following denied right-of-way permits, a development that introduces operational uncertainty for its future AI and cloud infrastructure projects. Additionally, Oracle has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share for payment in October 2026, as noted by Storagenewsletter, and announced enhancements to its Digital Assets Data Nexus platform, including new payment integrations and AI-based controls, according to Prnewswire. These developments come amid persistent concerns over cloud growth and operational headwinds.

Oversold conditions reinforce seller control amid broad technical weakness

On the technical front, ORCL is trading below the MA-20 at $147.93, MA-50 at $146.74, and the MA-200 at $165.33, with immediate resistance marked by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $148.92. Momentum indicators remain weak: MACD is in Sell mode, ADX signals a lack of clear trend direction, while RSI at 38.77, along with Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power, all highlight oversold conditions and dominant seller pressure. The Awesome Oscillator further confirms the prevailing downside structure. Price action is accompanied by a significant downside gap of 3.74 and heightened volatility, reflecting reinforced selling momentum across intraday and momentum metrics.

Downside risk elevated as volatility constrains short-term outlook

Over the next 2–3 sessions, ORCL is expected to trade within a projected range of $129.72 to $144.07, with a 77% probability of further downside and only a 23% likelihood of a recovery above current levels. The baseline scenario suggests price will consolidate sideways within this volatility band, while an upside move would require clearing resistance at $148.92. If support at $129.72 fails, the risk of deeper declines increases substantially.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the current Oracle setup as fundamentally pressured by restructuring and operational uncertainties but sees potential for stabilization. He believes decisive cost-cutting and a focus on digital assets can set the stage for a renewed growth narrative, once the current volatility settles. The analyst notes that cloud sector sentiment remains fragile after recent events, so short-term downside risk persists. However, he maintains a constructive outlook on Oracle’s long-term strategy, given sector leadership and persistent dividend commitments. "If support at $129.72 holds, I expect Oracle to consolidate and potentially build a platform for recovery as sentiment gradually improves."

Earlier, analysts noted that Oracle's stock was exhibiting consolidation with mixed technical signals amid persistent downward momentum and structural business changes. The current breakdown below key averages, coupled with negative operational developments, heightens the risk of further declines, making the $129.72 support level a critical threshold to watch in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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