BT Group faces renewed downside risk as macro pressure builds

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Mykhailo Ihnatenko

29.09.2026

BT Group faces renewed downside risk as macro pressure builds — BT shares test key support as UK yields climb and regulatory pressure builds

BT Group is once again at a point where a short-term rebound could prove to be little more than a pause within a broader decline. The next few sessions should show whether the stock can reclaim key technical levels or whether selling pressure will intensify.

BT-A price prediction

24H -0.22%

GBX 212.73

48H -0.22%

GBX 212.73

7D 0.44%

GBX 214.14

1M 6.63%

GBX 227.34

3M -1.45%

GBX 210.11

6M 17.7%

GBX 250.94

12M 14.25%

GBX 243.58

Detailed

Current price: GBX 213.2 2.00 0.95%

Real-time Data 16:29

Daily range 209.60

211.90

Weekly range 203.82

213.20

Ofcom has blocked Openreach from launching its Incremental New to Openreach Offer, which would have provided discounts of up to £9.50 per customer per month to encourage new FTTP connections. The regulator concluded that the offer could restrict competition from alternative networks. For BT, the decision is a moderately negative development because it removes one tool Openreach could have used to accelerate network take-up.

BT International, meanwhile, said UBS has selected BT Trading & Command to modernize its global trader voice infrastructure. The announcement is positive for BT’s enterprise business, although financial terms were not disclosed, meaning the deal is likely to have only a limited impact on the share price.

GBX 191–187.50 remains key downside zone

BT shares have played out the bearish scenario outlined earlier. The stock settled below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs and fell toward support around GBX 187.50, moving beyond the previous GBX 194.50 downside target.

A rebound followed, and on September 28 the shares climbed as high as GBX 198.85 during the session but failed to hold those gains.

Over the next few days, the risk of another move lower toward the GBX 191–187.50 area remains in place.

A convincing move and sustained hold above GBX 198 would invalidate this scenario. In that case, the shares could retest the 50-day SMA near GBX 200 before turning toward the 200-day SMA around GBX 202.50.

UK inflation and rising gilt yields add pressure

A deteriorating UK macroeconomic backdrop presents another risk for BT. Annual CPI inflation accelerated to 3.1% in August from 2.9%, while producer-price growth also picked up, keeping the risk of further inflationary pressure elevated.

At the same time, the yield on 10-year UK gilts climbed to 5.441% on September 28, its highest level since July 2007, amid rising oil prices and expectations of tighter Bank of England policy.

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