Tesla stock eyes $383 after Q3 deliveries beat expectations
Tesla has finally delivered a strong operating catalyst, with third-quarter deliveries coming in well above expectations and the stock extending its recovery. The key question now is whether that momentum can carry through the next resistance levels.
403.82
408.36
The third-quarter deliveries recorded by Tesla stood at 486,532, comfortably exceeding the company compiled estimate of 461,974. Production was at 464,391, showing that deliveries were 22,000 more than production. The Model 3 and Model Y made up the largest portion of the deliveries, totaling 478,237 vehicles.
The other major catalyst is the release of the full Q3 earning results by Tesla, which is expected after the closing bell on October 21. This will shed more light on margins, cash flow, profitability and guidance from the management on AI, FSD, Optimus and future demand.
$367.50 remains the key support for Tesla’s bullish setup
The scenario outlined in the previous analysis played out in full. Tesla reached the $367.50 target and closed at $370.59 on October 2.
Following the successful breakout above that resistance, the base-case scenario now shifts toward a move to $383, where the next significant supply zone is located.
If buyers can clear that level and establish a firm hold above it, upside momentum could accelerate, bringing the 200-day SMA near $393.50 into focus as the next target.
The current setup would be invalidated by a move back below $367.50 followed by a sustained hold under that level. In that case, the breakout would come into question and the risk of a correction toward $357 would increase materially.
Strong deliveries now need margin confirmation
The delivery beat has clearly improved Tesla’s near-term fundamental backdrop, but it has also raised the bar ahead of the October 21 earnings report. After such a strong volume result, the market will want confirmation that higher deliveries are being supported by resilient margins and stronger cash generation.
The current move therefore has solid operational support, but the next stage of the rally is likely to depend more on the quality of Tesla’s financial results than on delivery volumes alone.
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