Nvidia hits record high: Will profit-taking derail the run to $240?
Nvidia has set another all-time high, reinforcing the view that demand for leading AI names remains strong. After such a powerful move, however, the stock is becoming increasingly sensitive to any signs of profit-taking.
219.18
222.11
A Nvidia-supported startup named Reflection is getting ready to release an open-weight AI model. Axios reports that the startup hopes to provide an affordable option compared to the closed systems created by companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, as well as Chinese open weight models.
However, for Nvidia, the importance of the above story does not lie in its stand-alone investment but rather in the fact that it opens up yet another avenue to sell its GPUs. The more businesses develop their own artificial intelligence locally, the greater will be the market for Nvidia’s technology.
Holding $230 keeps $240 in focus
The base-case scenario from the previous analysis played out in full. Nvidia reached a new all-time high at $237.88.
Sellers regained some control during the October 2 session, however, and the stock closed at $233.95. That reaction points to some profit-taking around record levels, although the broader technical structure remains bullish.
For today’s session, the base case remains a continuation of the move toward $240. Opening short positions while the stock is making fresh all-time highs remains particularly risky.
The current setup would be invalidated by a decline and sustained move below $230. That would confirm weakening demand from buyers and materially increase the risk of a more pronounced round of profit-taking. The next support zone would then come into focus at $228–225.
Record highs make Nvidia more sensitive to capex signals
The key question for Nvidia is increasingly shifting from whether AI demand remains strong to how long the current pace of capital spending can be sustained.At record levels, the stock is especially sensitive to any signs of slower hyperscaler capex, higher financing costs or weaker outlooks for AI infrastructure spending. As long as those warning signs remain absent, the trend stays strong, but the higher the stock climbs, the more sharply the market is likely to react to any deterioration in expectations.
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