ON Semiconductor stock rises over 3% as options activity signals big post-earnings move

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On semiconductor rises 3.16% today

Highlights

Options market activity projects an 8.4% price move for ON Semiconductor stock after its upcoming earnings report.
Current patterns in ON Semiconductor equity options indicate expectations for significant post-earnings volatility.
The stock trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum signals, an expected five-day range of $71.48 to $77.63, and high probability of a downward move.

Elevated options activity anticipates outsized move on earnings

Options trading activity indicates that ON Semiconductor shares may see a significant price move of 8.4% following its upcoming earnings report. This expectation is based on current patterns in the company’s equity options market.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees ON Semiconductor’s latest price advance as technically unconvincing. He notes the stock remains below all key moving averages, emphasizing consistent selling pressure. Kharitonov highlights bearish momentum with negative indicators across MACD, RSI, and trend strength. Weakness at major supports and resistance levels also troubles him. "Despite a 3.16% gain, technical signals imply sellers are firmly in control and further downside is likely," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the robust options activity reflects strong anticipation for ON Semiconductor’s upcoming earnings. He views this as an opportunity, with potential for significant price action on fresh news. Karapetjanc considers the current setup as fertile ground for bulls, given the heightened volatility and upcoming catalysts. He expects investors to exploit any positive earnings surprise. "The market offers multiple setups here — I see bullish structure building and expect further growth on positive news," he says.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, expresses skepticism amid the increased earnings-related speculation. He points out the low probability of an upward move in the next five sessions and stresses the pronounced risk of further losses. Dele views the prevailing sentiment as overly reactive to options-driven headlines. "Traders should be wary of chasing this short-term rally — downside risks remain dominant," he cautions.

Bearish momentum persists as technical support and resistance converge

ON is trading below its 20-day ($77.4), 50-day ($75.18), and 200-day ($82.02) moving averages, suggesting ongoing selling pressure across all timeframes. The nearest resistance and support levels are the intraday ceiling at $74.6 and the floor at $72.24. The medium-term trend remains bearish, with a weak MA-50 versus MA-200 relationship and resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun ($77.65). Momentum indicators remain negative: MACD points to selling pressure, ADX shows neutral trend strength, and RSI is 42.91 with a sell forecast. Both the Commodity Channel Index and Stochastic RSI are deep in oversold or sell territory, and the Bull/Bear Power at -1.88 signals sellers’ control and a stretched downside. Although the stock has gained $2.29 or 3.16% and sits near the session high with intraday volatility at 3.27%, these gains contrast with the generally bearish technical backdrop.

Earlier, analysts noted that ON Semiconductor faced sustained technical challenges, with sellers maintaining control despite intermittent rebound attempts. The current analysis reaffirms this bearish outlook and highlights that traders should closely watch the $72.24 support level, as a break below could signal the next leg down within ON's high-volatility range.

Source of Data: ON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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