Costco stock weekly forecast: Mixed momentum as Stochastic RSI enters oversold territory

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Costco slides 2.11% this week

Highlights

Shares of Costco declined 2.11% over the past week to $981.78, closing at the bottom of the recent weekly range.
The stock maintains a moderately positive long-term trend, trading above its 200-day moving average despite recent downward pressure.
Technical signals are mixed with trend strength confirmed, oversold momentum indicators, and a base case trading range of $970.1 to $989.24, with a 73% probability of an increase next week.

Dividend declaration and strong earnings sustain sentiment despite insider moves

Costco declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.47 per share, set for payment on November 13, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 30, 2026, according to Simply Wall St. The company also reported September net sales of $30.02 billion. Recent disclosures showed insider share awards tied to fiscal 2026 performance conditions and tax withholding, while analysts continue to highlight robust earnings results and Costco's premium valuation.

Mixed momentum signals emerge as trend firms and volatility stays moderate

On the daily chart, Costco displays a trending setup with a sustained move lower and a firm trend, within a 3.16% volatility environment. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture, as MACD shows a buy signal at 27.07 while Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting possible near-term rebound potential. ADX at 38.73 confirms trend strength, but oscillator readings are otherwise neutral. Immediate support sits at $970.1, with resistance at $989.24 and the Ichimoku Kijun acting as additional backing at $957.08.

Upside favored next week as support and resistance levels define outlook

Over the coming trading week, the expected range is $967.81 to $995.74, with a 73% probability of an increase and a 27% probability of a decrease. The base case favors trading between the nearest support at $970.1 and resistance at $989.24. A move above $989.24 opens room toward the upper end of the forecasted range, while a drop below $970.1 would signal risk of deeper losses.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees shares of Costco holding an elevated position near $982, despite a modest 2% slide over the past week. Recent news of a $1.47 per share dividend and robust September sales of $30.02 billion support positive sentiment, but the stock continues to trade at a premium. On the daily chart, Costco shows a firm downside trend with 3.16% volatility, while mixed momentum readings hint at choppy action. Support is set at $970.1 and resistance at $989.24, with potential for a rebound given oversold conditions on the Stochastic RSI. However, Kharitonov remains cautious due to premium valuation and the risk of deeper losses if $970.1 is breached. "Until Costco stock moves decisively above $989.24, I remain defensive and would avoid chasing upside this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Costco maintained a strong technical profile supported by intermediate-term momentum and seasonal tailwinds. The current technical landscape introduces a more cautious tone, with volatility elevated and key support at $970.1 now serving as a crucial level to monitor for a potential shift in trading dynamics over the coming sessions.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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