NVDA falls as sellers maintain control below short- and medium-term averages

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Nvidia drops 3.81% to $205.5 today

Highlights

Nvidia announced a $1 billion investment in Naver, becoming its third-largest shareholder and marking a major capital allocation shift.
Institutional ETF purchases totaled $682.3 million over two days, but outflows persist and selling momentum remains strong.
Nvidia stock trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with persistent bearish signals and a likely range of $202.38 to $208.62.

Investor caution rises amid strategic investment and ETF inflows

Nvidia's announcement on October 29, 2026 of a $1 billion investment in Naver, making it the third-largest shareholder, represents a significant strategic capital shift that has prompted near-term investor caution, according to Gurufocus. Institutional ETF flows provided notable support, with $682.3 million in purchases over two days, yet these inflows have not been sufficient to offset current selling momentum, as reported by Gurufocus. Nvidia also addressed media allegations about its CEO and dismissed them as unfounded, according to CNBC, reducing overhang from reputational risk. The company’s recent earnings beat in August 2026 provides a longer-term supportive backdrop, but the stock's recent move has remained under pressure.

Bearish momentum persists as short-term levels face resistance

Technically, NVDA is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 but remains above the MA-200, indicating vulnerable short- and medium-term levels with long-term support still acting as a floor. The immediate resistance is set at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $212.86, which could limit recovery attempts in the coming sessions. Momentum indicators—including MACD and ADX—signal a persistent downtrend, and oversold conditions are confirmed by RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI. Bull/Bear Power highlights seller dominance during today's session, while the Awesome Oscillator also aligns with this bearish pressure.

Limited upside as breakout risk remains skewed to downside

In the short term, NVDA is expected to trade within a tight range of $202.38 to $208.62, reflecting typical volatility levels. The probability of an upward price breakout is very low given current technical and sentiment signals, while the risk of a downward move remains much higher. The baseline scenario would be for the stock to consolidate sideways within this defined band unless a decisive break occurs. A bullish scenario would only emerge if NVDA sustains trading above the immediate resistance at $212.86, while a clear bearish breakdown would follow a breach below the $202.38 support level.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia under notable pressure after its $1 billion capital move into Naver, despite recent institutional inflows and a solid earnings result. Short- and medium-term technicals are bearish, with momentum and sentiment indicators showing little sign of reversal. For now, any upside risk is strictly capped below $212.86, and the probability of a breakdown below $202.38 remains high. "With buyers exhausted and technical signals aligning to the downside, I remain on the defensive until Nvidia reclaims critical resistance levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia faced increased regulatory and reputational risks, alongside persistent technical weakness that kept the outlook cautious. The current analysis reinforces this view, highlighting that downside risk remains elevated as the stock trades within a narrow consolidation band and a breach below $202.38 could trigger a more pronounced decline.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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