Can CEO Brian Armstrong's share sale plan pressure Coinbase stock?

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Coinbase drops 3.29% to $138.63 today

Highlights

Coinbase revenue fell 35% year over year in the third quarter of 2026 to $1.22 billion, with most profit coming from crypto asset gains and not core trading operations.
The company faces concerns about earnings stability following a sharp decline in spot trading volumes and news that CEO Brian Armstrong may sell up to 8,167,446 shares starting November 16, 2026.
Coinbase stock trades below key moving averages with bearish technical momentum and is projected to stay between $126.74 and $150.52 barring a break of immediate resistance or support.

Earnings sustainability questioned as core revenue and volumes plunge

Coinbase reported a 35% year-over-year decline in third quarter 2026 revenue to $1.22 billion, with net income of $718.7 million primarily reflecting gains from crypto holdings rather than core operations. This sharp fall in core transaction revenue and spot trading volumes has raised concerns over the sustainability of earnings, with market participants citing diminished confidence in the underlying business model. Additionally, recent filings revealed that CEO Brian Armstrong has established a prearranged plan to potentially sell up to 8,167,446 shares beginning November 16, 2026, adding to supply pressures and uncertainty around future leadership holdings.

Bearish momentum sustains with oversold signals and firm resistance

On the h1 timeframe, COIN/USD has moved below the MA-20 at $152.16 and MA-50 at $158.7, with daily price action also under the MA-200 at $178.24. The Ichimoku Kijun line, currently at $150.25, stands as an immediate resistance level. Momentum indicators maintain a bearish setup: MACD, ADX, and CCI all register Sell signals, while RSI is at 31.46, reflecting oversold conditions. Stochastic RSI and the Awesome Oscillator remain neutral, while Bull/Bear Power indicates sellers maintain intraday control. There is no meaningful divergence among short-term indicators, which collectively confirm weak momentum and ongoing bearish price action.

Downside risk persists absent resistance break amid tight trading range

Over the next few sessions, COIN is expected to trade within a volatility band of $126.74 to $150.52. The probability of a further downside move is high, with limited upside potential unless price reclaims resistance at $150.25. The baseline scenario envisions continued sideways price action within this range. A break below $126.74 could accelerate selling, while a bullish shift would require a confirmed close above immediate resistance.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees near-term pressure on Coinbase driven by weak fundamentals and negative sentiment. Earnings are increasingly reliant on gains from crypto holdings rather than steady core revenues. Market confidence is undermined by news of significant insider selling and falling transaction volumes. The analyst believes any sustained upside will require a structural turnaround in business performance. "If Coinbase can restore trust through organic revenue growth, sentiment and price could recover quickly, but for now caution is warranted."

Earlier, analysts noted that Coinbase faced significant challenges due to weakening cryptocurrency trading activity and declining profitability forecasts. The latest earnings data and technical signals reinforce these concerns, with traders advised to monitor the $126.74 level for potential downside acceleration.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.