-1.15% for Nvidia stock as Nvidia limits China revenue exposure

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Nvidia drops 1.15% to $202.6 today

Highlights

Nvidia has directed its cloud and data center partners to limit sales to Chinese clients to no more than 49 percent, reducing direct exposure to China-related revenue.
The company is instructing data center partners to further scale back business with Chinese customers, raising uncertainty for its partner ecosystem and long-term demand from the region.
Shares of Nvidia are under sustained selling pressure, trading below major moving averages with a strong bearish technical setup and an expected near-term range of $193.47 to $211.72.

Revenue risk grows as China sales restricted for data partners

Nvidia has instructed its cloud computing and data center clients to limit sales to Chinese customers to no more than 49 percent, with at least 51 percent of services directed to non-Chinese companies, according to Bloomberg. This move directly curbs the company's exposure to China-related revenue, creating uncertainty around future top-line growth within these segments. Concurrently, Nvidia has told data center partners to further reduce their business with Chinese customers, as reported by Investing.com, increasing concern over the stability of its partner ecosystem and long-term demand from the region.

Bearish momentum persists as technical support nears oversold levels

On the technical front, NVDA trades below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, sustaining persistent downside pressure across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. The Ichimoku Kijun at $211.56 marks immediate resistance, while key support rests near $193.47. MACD and ADX both reflect prevailing bearish momentum, and both the RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI are in oversold territory, which highlights potential for a rebound but does not confirm a turn. Bull/Bear Power remains negative, indicating seller dominance intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator continues to support the active downtrend.

Downside risks elevated as range-bound trading likely short term

Looking ahead to the next 2 to 3 trading sessions, NVDA is likely to trade within a volatility band of $193.47 to $211.72. The probability of upside movement is described as very low, and the chance of further decline is very high; therefore, additional gains appear unlikely in the immediate term. Baseline expectations are for NVDA to hold within the established corridor, but a close above $211.56 could trigger a recovery attempt, while a break below $193.47 may lead to accelerated losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia’s recent move to limit exposure to Chinese clients as a clear response to regulatory and geopolitical pressures. He believes this adds near-term growth uncertainty for the data center and cloud business, but does not undermine the company’s long-term leadership in AI. The current technical setup stays weak, yet oversold conditions and the fundamental strength of Nvidia keep the downside risk contained. "If NVDA can defend support near $193.47 and sentiment steadies, I expect a rebound attempt despite headwinds from the China restrictions."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing U.S. regulatory restrictions and election-related uncertainty were significant sources of pressure on Nvidia shares. The latest tightening of client guidance regarding China exposure further strengthens the downside case, making a break below the $193.47 support the key risk to monitor in coming sessions.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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