Nvidia shares weekly forecast: Oversold oscillators highlight rebound risk amid persistent downtrend

Traders Union
All News
Stocks
Nvidia slides 3.91% this week

Highlights

Shares of Nvidia closed at $179.45, falling $7.3 across the last 7 days and trading well below key moving averages.
Technical indicators reveal a persistent bearish trend with strong downside momentum signals on the daily chart.
Support lies at $170.24 and resistance at $204.62, with trading expected between $162.14 and $196.75 next week.

Internal investigation heightens scrutiny as regulatory risks escalate

Nvidia is under scrutiny after the board announced an internal investigation into CEO Jensen Huang following his admission of an affair with a woman suspected by U.S. intelligence to be a Chinese spy, according to Yahoo Finance. This move has led to increased regulatory attention and calls from U.S. Senators for the Department of Commerce to review NVDA’s export licenses to China. CNBC reports that while proposed chip export restrictions are unlikely to be included in the final FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act, the matter could be revisited next year.

Bearish momentum persists this week as oversold signals prompt rebound risk

Nvidia shares remain under pressure on the daily timeframe, with a sustained move lower and a firm trend as noted by the momentum character and 22.73% weekly volatility. The RSI (27.14), CCI (-215.62), and Stochastic RSI (8.46) are all in oversold territory, suggesting selling exhaustion and possible rebound risk even as the trend remains negative. The MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator all indicate downside momentum is firmly in place. Nearest support is seen at $170.24, while resistance aligns with the MA-200 at $204.62 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $208.69.

Further downside favored next week unless key resistance is reclaimed

For the coming trading week, the expected range is $162.14 to $196.75. There is a very high probability of a further decrease (more than 80%) and a very low probability of an increase (less than 20%). The base case sees Nvidia continuing to trend within this lower range. A rebound above $204.62 would challenge resistance and could signal short-term stabilization, while a drop below $170.24 would extend the recent decline toward the lower end of the expected range.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees Nvidia shares pressured this week amid ongoing controversy around the CEO and heightened regulatory scrutiny. He notes that intense selling drove the price near $179, with sentiment negatively impacted by internal investigations and export license concerns. Technically, daily indicators are deep in oversold territory, hinting at possible rebound risk, even as momentum remains firmly to the downside. The trend bias is for further weakness, with support at $170.24 and resistance at $204.62. For the week ahead, Turakhiya says: "With news flow keeping sentiment fragile and downside momentum dominating, I expect Nvidia to remain under pressure — but oversold signals could soon offer traders a short-term bounce opportunity within a challenging range."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia had maintained its bullish ratings from major brokerages despite some target downgrades tied to earnings and growth prospects. The current situation adds a new dimension as a sharp selloff, compounded by leadership scrutiny and heightened regulatory attention, places the spotlight on whether the $170.24 support level will continue to hold in the short term.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.