Nebius Group stock tumbles nearly 17% as strong growth is overshadowed by cautious revenue outlook and higher capex

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Nebius Group slides 16.77% today

Highlights

Nebius Group reported third quarter revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $465.8 million on strong AI cloud demand.
The company narrowed its GAAP net loss to $37.5 million, raised $5.75 billion through convertible notes, and lifted 2026 capital spending guidance to $27 billion.
Shares of Nebius Group are trading below key moving averages with bearish momentum signals, and the expected five-day range is $110.51 to $159.1.

Downside pressure persists as upbeat revenue and capital raise meet caution

Nebius Group posted significant financial results for the third quarter of 2026, with revenue increasing 571% year-over-year to $980.8 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $465.8 million, reflecting expansion in AI cloud operations. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $37.5 million, a narrower loss than last year and ahead of analyst expectations. Nebius revised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range and issued initial 2027 revenue guidance of $12 to $13 billion, while increasing its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $27 billion. $5.75 billion was raised through convertible notes, and cash reserves grew to $7.4 billion, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the sharp price drop and soft guidance as a clear warning for investors. He notes that Nebius Group trades far below all major moving averages, reinforcing technical weakness. Fundamental momentum has stalled despite headline revenue growth, as the revised outlook and higher capex guidance fuel skepticism about execution. Negative momentum signals dominate, and short-term price action reflects persistent selling. "The evidence points to more downside risk as negative sentiment and technical weakness outweigh the bullish longer-term structure," Kharitonov says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, focuses on Nebius Group’s transformative financial growth. He highlights the robust revenue surge and strong EBITDA, underlining successful AI expansion and solid capital raising. Despite near-term volatility and guidance tightening, Karapetjanc stresses the scale-up ambitions for 2027 and the company’s deep cash reserves. "This trajectory signals that the bullish structure remains intact and further growth is expected as Nebius unlocks new market opportunities," Karapetjanc asserts.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, views Nebius Group’s session with skepticism, citing negative momentum and heightened volatility. He emphasizes that investor confidence is undermined by the downward revision in outlook and markedly higher capital expenditures. The divergence between fleeting intraday buying and sustained technical weakness gives him pause. "For now, I’m wary of reversal hopes with sellers controlling the narrative and limited macro tailwinds," Dele concludes.

Bearish momentum intensifies as technical signals diverge from intraday strength

Nebius Group is trading well below its short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, with the current price at $128.96 compared to the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day levels of $156.8, $198.09, and $179.13 respectively. This indicates ongoing pressure from sellers across all timeframes, with the nearest resistance at $131.61 and the most recent support at $123.19, while longer-term structure retains a bullish alignment according to the MA-50 vs MA-200. Momentum readings show the MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) firmly in sell territory, underscoring persistent bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are both neutral, while the Stochastic RSI is in the overbought zone, suggesting a possible downside correction risk. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) points to buyers holding the upper hand in intraday momentum. The stock opened with a notable downside gap of $35.06 (22.63%) and has slipped $25.985 or 16.77%, though price action is near the session high as intraday volatility stands at 9.78%. There is a clear divergence between strong intraday buying and sustained negative momentum indicators.

Previously it was reported that Nebius Group posted strong quarterly revenue growth and secured significant debt financing amid heightened attention on AI infrastructure spending. The current technical and volatility setup underscores a critical inflection point, with traders advised to monitor the $123.19 support as a potential trigger for further downside risk.

Source of Data: NBIS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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