Hedge Fund Strategy and Macro Analysis by Bob Elliott
Longstanding doubts about China outpacing U.S. economy, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, comments on debates about China overtaking the U.S. economy. He recalls a period when some observers were convinced that China would surpass the U.S. ...
Bob Elliott: Markets diverge on impact of Iran war supply disruption
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, observes that political betting markets are increasingly anticipating an ongoing supply disruption due to the Iran war. In contrast, current oil ...
Offering $400 million per year private asset costs conflicts with Bogle vision, Bob Elliott argues
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, questions how the current CIO of Vanguard can justify offering private asset exposure with $400 million per year in costs structured in a complicated ...
Bob Elliott: Low-cost hedge fund strategies can improve portfolio outcomes
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights that many investors may not be familiar with the potential benefits of low-cost hedge fund strategies for their portfolios. According to ...
Canadian inflation comes in below expectations, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, observes that Canadian inflation data released this morning was broadly below expectations. He adds that the recent return to war has interrupted the ...
Bob Elliott: Investor optimism at highest level in years
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights a sharp divergence in investor sentiment. Only 2% of investors believe a hard economic landing is possible, the lowest level in years. ...
Leverage risk shifts to retail equity focus, Bob Elliott warns
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, warns that leverage risk has shifted from a small number of banks engaged in real economy lending to becoming highly diffuse and concentrated on ...
Bob Elliott: China faces prolonged economic malaise as chip exports provide limited support
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights ongoing challenges in China's economy, noting that official data suggest continued softness. According to Elliott, the country's deleveraging ...
Speculative exhaustion and renewed war increase market fragility, Bob Elliott warns
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, highlights the fragile state of the current equity mania. Elliott points to a combination of speculative investor exhaustion, elevated expectations, ...
Bob Elliott: Global inflation remains subdued despite higher oil prices
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights that global inflation has stayed remarkably subdued even with the recent surge in oil prices. According to Elliott, peak price increases are ...
U.S. trade balance nears post-covid lows, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, observes that the U.S. trade balance is moving back toward post-covid lows as transitory factors are accounted for. Elliott characterizes recent ...
Bob Elliott: Market dynamics shift in favor of Japanese yen as shorts remain crowded
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights that Japanese yen short positions are currently crowded, even as economic conditions and policy shifts are moving to support Japan. Elliott ...
Lower cost investment choices now rival hedge funds, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, challenges the value of hedge fund fees and lockups given the availability of more affordable and liquid investment alternatives. Elliott references ...
Bob Elliott: Markets price in extraordinary economic outcomes amid rotation focus
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, questions whether market participants are missing broader economic signals by focusing on market rotation. Elliott suggests that current market pricing ...
Negative jobs revisions and low wage growth make rate hikes unlikely, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, points to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market based on recent jobs data. Elliott highlights negative revisions, reduced hiring, low prime-age ...
Bob Elliott: AI investment boom risks disappointing returns or unmet capex expectations
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, warns that either the anticipated $5 trillion in AI investments will result in poor returns, or the expected capital expenditures driving recent AI ...
AI investment may need $4 trillion in revenue, Bob Elliott argues
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, analyzes the scale of anticipated U.S. capital expenditure in AI by 2030, which he estimates at $5 trillion. He calculates that for such an ...
Bob Elliott: Including informal workforce reveals weaker job growth
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, suggests that when the informal workforce is factored in using household survey data rather than payrolls, job growth in the U.S. looks significantly ...
Collapse in informal job creation points to weaker U.S. labor market, Bob Elliott argues
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, highlights the collapse in informal sector job creation in the U.S. labor market. Elliott observes that while many focus on payroll growth to ...
Bob Elliott: Disinflation likely to drive soft inflation readings in coming months
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, expects very soft month-over-month inflation readings over the next few months as disinflationary trends develop. This outlook suggests a period of ...
Durable goods orders boost Asian manufacturing amid AI demand, Bob Elliott argues
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, argues that the recent surge in durable goods orders is giving a misleading impression of U.S. economic growth and manufacturing strength. He ...
