Hedge Fund Strategy and Macro Analysis by Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott: Oil shock challenges reliability of bottom-up inflation estimates
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, questions the effectiveness of bottom-up, timely price estimates in capturing inflation dynamics. He argues that current measures suggesting ...
Inventories are falling rapidly, Bob Elliott warns
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, warns that while market participants are focused on a slightly better-than-expected supply situation, inventories are being depleted at a rate that ...
Bob Elliott: AI and chips mania fades after equity decline
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, comments that the recent sharp downturn in equities is more likely a response to signs of exhaustion in the AI and chip sector mania, rather than being ...
S&P500 expected to see 20 percent earnings growth in 9 months, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights that analysts are currently projecting 20 percent earnings growth for the S&P500 over the course of 9 months. He suggests that short-term ...
Bob Elliott: New hedge fund 444 plan prompts allocator pushback over fees and liquidity
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights a growing backlash among allocators to the new hedge fund "444 plan," which features a 4% management fee, 45% performance fee, and a ...
Boeing sees surge in April orders but production impact may be delayed, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, points to a surge in new orders during April, largely attributed to a strong month for Boeing. He notes that such increases in orders do not always ...
Bob Elliott: ECB may risk credibility with 2 percent rates as inflation rises
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, questions whether the European Central Bank is lagging behind on monetary policy by keeping rates at 2 percent while inflation increases and ...
Households worldwide cut back real spending, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, highlights that households around the world are cutting back on real spending due to wage growth failing to keep pace with inflation. He observes ...
Bob Elliott: U.S. households face economic pressure from falling real incomes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, highlights that real incomes for U.S. households are now contracting, yet consumer spending has not declined so far. He notes that without relief on ...
Strong equity earnings growth faces macroeconomic hurdles, Bob Elliott warns
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, highlights the disconnect between current equity investor expectations and underlying macroeconomic reality. He points out that while recent ...
Bob Elliott: Housing market weakened before long-end yield spike
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, observes that housing turned down even before the recent spike in long-end yields. March Case-Schiller price index has moved back into negative ...
Elevated prices may reflect hidden bubbles in earnings, Bob Elliott warns
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, discusses how manias in earnings expectations can create bubbles that appear justified by strong fundamentals rather than speculation. Elliott ...
Bob Elliott: Modest equity gains seen from Iran deal, more upside in bonds and downside in oil
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, indicates that the potential equity gains from an Iran deal are likely to be modest. He notes there may be greater upside potential in bond prices ...
TIPS real yields at 3% offer compelling value, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, argues that a core investing principle is that yield determines outcomes. He highlights that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) offering ...
Bob Elliott: Interview with Frank reflects on TARP passage period
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, highlights an interview with Frank conducted shortly after the TARP legislation was enacted. Elliott mentions witnessing some of these events ...
Investors can lock in nearly 3 percent real returns with 30-year TIPS, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, explains that 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) now offer investors nearly 3 percent real yields. According to Elliott, this ...
Bob Elliott: U.S. manufacturing data show continued weakness
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, points to ongoing signs of softness in U.S. manufacturing data. He contrasts these figures with more optimistic narratives about a potential economic ...
AI investment exerts limited macro influence, Bob Elliott argues
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, challenges the widespread view that AI investment is significantly boosting the U.S. economy. According to Elliott, after considering related imports ...
Bob Elliott: Japanese real spending contracting at 3 percent pace signals no need for tightening
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, points out that Japanese household real spending is contracting at a 3 percent pace. He suggests this indicates the Japanese economy is not in need of ...
Existing home sales stay at secular lows, Bob Elliott notes
Bob Elliott, co-founder / CIO at Unlimited, observes that U.S. existing home sales continue to remain at secular lows. This suggests that hopes for a near-term rebound in the housing market have ...
Bob Elliott: Macro strategies delivered over 20 percent annual returns in recent AI era
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, rejects the notion that macro strategies have been 'broken' over the past 3 years during the AI era. He points out that, when matched to equity ...
