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Benchmark Employment Cost Index (ECI) wage data are at cycle lows, consistent with recent monthly Average Hourly Earnings data.
Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, suggested this points to limited labor market tightness or momentum, regardless of the unemployment rate.
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Elliott previously stated that the recent increase in U.S. bond yields remains within expectations based on market data and anticipated tightening, according to a past analysis. He has also noted that market bets on AI are vulnerable, with actual spending growth slowing despite strong investor enthusiasm, as reported in another recent article. These observations reflect Elliott’s ongoing focus on shifts in market expectations and underlying economic data.