Macro Investing and Market Strategy by Craig Shapiro
Craig Shapiro: Oil seen as pivotal factor for market dynamics into Monday
Oil is described as a key swing factor for market movements into Monday, with Craig Shapiro stating that a confirmed hit on Yanbu or Rabigh or any sign of a U.S. strike on Iran could push Brent ...
Is canceling an IPO preferable to a botched debut, Craig Shapiro asks
Craig Shapiro questioned whether it is better to cancel an initial public offering than to proceed with one that does not go well. He also asked whether this situation is a positive sign for ...
Craig Shapiro: Raising equity at this valuation preferable to taking on more high coupon debt for META
Craig Shapiro said that raising equity at META's current valuation appears to be a much better option than issuing additional high coupon debt. He added that this assessment also applies to other ...
Earnings growth may be at its peak, Craig Shapiro notes
Craig Shapiro questioned whether earnings growth has reached its peak during a live discussion this morning on "The Morning Gap" at NTLiveMedia. Shapiro also invited viewers to join the daily ...
Craig Shapiro: Key trading levels and plans discussed on Sunday Open replay
Key trading index levels and weekly trading plans were discussed by @PharmD_KS, @TradeSniperSara, and @paxtrader777 in a replay of "The Sunday Open" on @NTLiveMedia. Craig Shapiro highlighted the ...
Market themes and major asset classes to be discussed this week, Craig Shapiro notes
Craig Shapiro announced plans to join @paxtrader777, @PharmD_KS, and @TradeSniperSara in analyzing the significant week ahead for markets following a volatile close to last week. The discussion ...
Craig Shapiro: Gamma support ends as earnings season begins, market left more exposed
Gamma support in the market is ending as earnings season begins, with dealer gamma set to roll off next week and buyback blackout removing the corporate bid. Craig Shapiro posted that these ...
Fed Beige Book signals acceleration in inflation trends compared to last month, Craig Shapiro notes
Federal Reserve Beige Book commentary on inflation indicates a shift this month toward acceleration, reversing last month’s trend of stabilizing or slowing price momentum across U.S. districts. ...
Craig Shapiro: Volatility indexes VVIX and UVIX near 95 as spot VIX stays at 15.44
Volatility indexes VVIX and UVIX are each near 95, while spot VIX remains contained at 15.44. Craig Shapiro highlighted that tail protection is being bought on the surface, with TAIL at 50 and ...
HYG and JNK shift to top ETF quartile, Craig Shapiro notes
HYG and JNK reversed from bottom-quartile levels on October 8 to the top of the ETF distribution today. Craig Shapiro also noted broader gains in metals, with CNY reaching highs of the day, while ...
Craig Shapiro: Key market events and earnings ahead this week
Craig Shapiro highlights a packed agenda for markets this week, mentioning that CPI and PPI data are expected alongside major bank earnings. Warsh is scheduled to speak, and Friday marks an ...
Crude surges to $105 as bond market falters, Craig Shapiro notes
Craig Shapiro highlights a rapid increase in crude prices, with Brent topping $105 on news of Pentagon strike preparations. He also points to stress in the AI credit space and warns that the bond ...
Craig Shapiro: Markit PMI price gauges indicate accelerating U.S. inflation risk
Craig Shapiro highlights insights from the latest Markit PMI, focusing on price trends. The survey's price gauges indicate that inflation is accelerating across goods and services, raising ...
Bond market-led selloff may become more extreme for risk assets, Craig Shapiro notes
Craig Shapiro highlights the notable similarities between current market conditions and October 1987. He suggests that while no historical analogy is perfect, the present bond market-driven ...
Craig Shapiro: Market signals policy mistake as curve flattens
Craig Shapiro observes that weak payroll numbers and negative revisions are occurring alongside a 4% drop in oil prices. The 2-year yield rallied initially but then reversed, closing higher on the ...
30-year yields elevated as volatility remains low, Craig Shapiro writes
Craig Shapiro examines the current trajectory of 30-year yields by comparing levels seen in 1987 with those projected for 2026. He points out that despite multi-decade highs in yields and a ...
Craig Shapiro: PCE data is key for U.S. rates direction
Craig Shapiro highlights that Brent crude is recovering, but challenges in refined products are maintaining inflationary pressures. He emphasizes that today’s PCE data release is the focal ...
Forced selling could approach $60 billion as volatility control and pension flows drive action, Craig Shapiro notes
Craig Shapiro highlights that markets could face forced selling totaling nearly $60 billion. He notes that volatility control is close to being maxed out, with a 2% move potentially triggering $30 ...
Craig Shapiro: Quarter-end flows and heavy data week in focus
Craig Shapiro highlights several key themes impacting markets this week, including quarter-end flows and a heavy slate of data releases. He also points to lingering uncertainty around Iran, ...
Payward drives growth with NinjaTrader and Kraken, Craig Shapiro notes
Craig Shapiro shares his excitement about being part of an organization led by the person responsible for signing his paychecks. He highlights that NinjaTrader and Kraken are owned by Payward, ...
Craig Shapiro: Short positions on IWM and crude ahead of quarter end
Craig Shapiro is taking a short position on both IWM and crude oil going into the weekend. He explains this view is based on the possibility that, without an agreement on Iran over the weekend, ...
