Global Economics, Markets, and Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

Peter Berezin is Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research at BCA Research, a global leader in macroeconomic forecasting. His role involves publishing the firm’s Global Investment Strategy, read by over 2,000 institutional clients across asset management, central banking, and sovereign wealth funds. With a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Toronto, Berezin has also worked at Goldman Sachs and the International Monetary Fund. His macro frameworks cover equity cycle timing, credit risk, and liquidity modeling, with recent emphasis on AI’s economic productivity effects and digital asset correlations.

Berezin remains skeptical of Bitcoin’s role in asset allocation. In January 2025, he described Bitcoin as “speculative tech equity with zero real yield” and forecast a decline to USD 45,000 under stagflationary conditions. His model assigns low forward returns to crypto, citing decreasing network growth and ETF saturation risk. BCA Research continues to publish crypto macro reports, though with lower allocation weightings than traditional commodities or frontier equities. Berezin’s lectures at Wharton and University of Toronto include monetary policy under decentralized capital, though without direct promotion of crypto-based systems. His work on fiat volatility and capital flow models has received renewed attention in debates over stablecoin regulatory frameworks.

  • Elena Nikulina
  • 13.06.2026
Peter Berezin: Emergency sell signal from model as SpaceX IPO debuts
Peter Berezin reported that his investment model has issued an “emergency sell” signal, coinciding with the day of the SpaceX IPO. While Berezin noted he is not as bearish as the model ...
  • Andreas Kristo
  • 10.06.2026
Chicago Fed sees 1.3% decline in May retail sales, Peter Berezin notes
Peter Berezin reports that the Chicago Fed’s early estimate for May retail sales, using big data, signals a significant inflation-adjusted decline of 1.3%. This drop may reflect the impact of ...
  • Artem Shendetskii
  • 05.06.2026
Peter Berezin: Full-time jobs decline while part-time roles surge in labor data
Peter Berezin highlights a notable shift in recent labor market data, pointing out that full-time employment fell by 79,000 while part-time positions increased by 266,000, according to the ...
  • Yaroslav Dmytrenko
  • 04.06.2026
Economic activity decline could trigger bear market, Peter Berezin warns
Peter Berezin reports that his model, containing several hundred leading indicators for the stock market, is showing signs of concern. He notes that if the economic activity component ...
  • Anastasiia Chabaniuk
  • 02.06.2026
Peter Berezin: JOLTS job openings surge driven by professional and business services
Peter Berezin highlights a significant jump in JOLTS job openings reported today, observing that most of the increase was concentrated in professional and business services. Berezin notes that ...
  • Yulia Slavina
  • 02.06.2026
If equities do not fall, coming IPO wave narrative weakens, Peter Berezin argues
Peter Berezin questions whether the stock market will decline in light of current conditions. He suggests that if the market remains stable, prevailing narratives around an impending surge in ...
  • Dmytro Kharkov
  • 30.05.2026
Peter Berezin: AI bubble driven by earnings, not valuations
Peter Berezin argues that the current artificial intelligence bubble is primarily an earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. He states that his latest report outlines key metrics ...
  • Artem Shendetskii
  • 16.05.2026
OpenAI aims for $280 billion in revenue by 2030, Peter Berezin notes
Peter Berezin reports that the proportion of U.S. businesses with paid OpenAI subscriptions is declining. The company currently has $600 billion in spending commitments and targets a tenfold ...
  • Eugene Komchuk
  • 10.05.2026
Peter Berezin: Real terms spending increase may be driven by soaring memory prices
Peter Berezin, industry influencer, raises questions about the recent increase in spending, noting that much of it may be due to rising prices, particularly for memory. He observes that if prices ...
  • Oleg Tkachenko
  • 08.05.2026
Uptrend in chart has always preceded recession, Peter Berezin warns
Peter Berezin, industry influencer, expresses concern over a chart showing that certain series have never moved into an uptrend without a recession following soon after. Berezin suggests this ...
  • Iryna Sazhynska
  • 07.05.2026
Peter Berezin: Maintained bullish stance through 2010s and into 2024
Peter Berezin, industry influencer, describes his market outlook over the past decade, noting that he was bullish throughout the 2010s. He briefly turned tactically bearish at the onset of the ...
  • Eugene Komchuk
  • 02.05.2026
DeepValue Basket beats S&P 500 by sixteen percent, Peter Berezin notes
Peter Berezin, industry influencer, reports that BCA’s DeepValue Basket, which consists of some of the cheapest stocks in the U.S., has outperformed the S&P 500 by sixteen percent since its ...
  • Dmytro Kharkov
  • 29.04.2026
Peter Berezin: DDR5 spot prices rise but market tightness stabilizes
Peter Berezin, industry influencer, reports that DDR5 spot prices are rising but have not yet returned to their previous highs. He concludes the memory market remains very tight, though there is ...
  • Elena Nikulina
  • 21.04.2026
Strong stock market gains may precede impact of AGI, Peter Berezin suggests
Peter Berezin suggests that the onset of the artificial intelligence age could mark a period of significant stock market gains. According to Berezin, as we approach artificial general intelligence ...
  • Hlib Chabaniuk
  • 09.04.2026
Peter Berezin: Real U.S. disposable income flat excluding government transfers since Liberation Day
Peter Berezin highlights that, excluding government transfers, real disposable income in the U.S. has not increased since Liberation Day. He notes that the data reflects conditions as of ...
  • Parshwa Turakhiya
  • 09.04.2026
Brent Dec-2026 futures near pre-ceasefire levels, Peter Berezin notes
Brent crude oil futures for December 2026 have almost recovered to their levels before what Peter Berezin calls the Big Beautiful Ceasefire. Oil stocks, according to Berezin, continue to offer ...
  • Eugene Komchuk
  • 03.04.2026
Peter Berezin: BLS model change increases monthly variability in U.S. job data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updated its birth-death model earlier this year to better incorporate new information, according to Peter Berezin. This revision aims to enhance the model's ...
  • Dmytro Kharkov
  • 07.02.2026
Peter Berezin sees upside for global growth but warns of potential stock market drag
Peter Berezin forecasts an upside trend in global growth over the next 3 to 6 months. He highlights a significant risk stemming from businesses struggling to monetize AI investments, which could ...
  • Elena Nikulina
  • 07.01.2026
Peter Berezin sees Oracle under pressure amid capex concerns
Peter Berezin highlights that while the 2026 estimates for some companies might be revised higher, the outlook for 2027 and 2028 has remained flat. He points out that companies like Oracle are ...
  • Dmytro Kharkov
  • 01.01.2026
Peter Berezin questions US dollar's stability despite equity inflows
Peter Berezin raises concerns about the unexpected weakness of the US dollar in 2025, despite significant foreign investments in US stocks. He questions the potential impact on the dollar if these ...
  • Mikhail Vnuchkov
  • 25.10.2025
Gold ETF holdings lag 2022 levels as prices surge, Peter Berezin predicts bullish trend
Despite a significant surge in gold prices this year, the volume of gold held in US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains lower than in 2022, according to Peter Berezin. Berezin, an expert ...