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Chicago Fed sees 1.3% decline in May retail sales, Peter Berezin notes
Peter Berezin reports that the Chicago Fed’s early estimate for May retail sales, using big data, signals a significant inflation-adjusted decline of 1.3%.
This drop may reflect the impact of higher oil prices, which Berezin suggests are beginning to affect consumer spending.
Berezin recently pointed to a decline of 79,000 in full-time jobs and a rise of 266,000 in part-time positions in the latest labor data. He has also described the current AI bubble as driven mainly by earnings, rather than valuations. The recent retail sales estimate follows these earlier observations on labor and market trends.
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