Housing Data and Real Estate Research by Rick Palacios Jr.
Rick Palacios Jr.: New home sales fell 3.4% year over year in September
New home sales totaled 56,000 in September, down 3.4% from a year earlier on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Rick Palacios Jr. noted that if 1,233 homes sold by Lennar to Millrose are excluded, ...
Homebuilders pull forward sales with temporary mortgage rate buydowns, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Since late-2022, homebuilders have been accelerating sales by offering costly mortgage rate buydowns, often providing 30-year mortgage terms at approximately 4% to 5.5%. Many of the buyers who ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Dallas homebuilders report 70% sales drop in H-1B visa communities
Rick Palacios Jr. reports that the new home market faced severe challenges in September as mortgage rates climbed, significantly affecting builders in U.S. communities with a high concentration of ...
Homebuyer demand low at 7.5% mortgage rates, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. reports that very few households recently surveyed are interested in purchasing a home at 7.5% mortgage rates. He notes that it remains uncertain when this housing logjam will ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Seattle home prices fall 3 percent year over year amid supply increase
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights that Seattle home prices have declined 3 percent year over year, marking the steepest drop among all markets tracked. He adds that the months’ supply of homes in ...
Interest rates are being pushed up by multiple forces, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. identifies five major forces contributing to rising interest rates. The analysis was excerpted from a client webinar held on September ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Moveout rates for home purchases are below post-GFC lows at some apartment REITs
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights that moveout rates for home purchases are now trending below post-global financial crisis lows for certain apartment real estate investment trusts. This suggests a ...
TOL shows robust margins above pre-COVID levels, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights the continued strength of TOL's gross and operating margins, emphasizing that both measures remain well above levels seen before the COVID pandemic. This suggests ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: New U.S. homes selling below resale prices in rare trend
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights that, on a national level, new homes in the U.S. are currently being sold at a discount compared to resale properties, a situation he describes as extremely rare. He ...
10-year Treasury reaches 4.74 percent new peak, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights that the 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.74 percent, marking a new high for 2026. He observes that the housing market continues to struggle in recent years. ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Seattle housing market new home sales drop below post-subprime collapse levels
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights ongoing weakness in the Seattle housing market, stating that new home sales are now running below levels seen during the worst period following the subprime collapse. ...
Homebuilders reduce reliance on spec home sales, Rick Palacios Jr. indicates
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights that homebuilders are gradually moving away from finished speculative home sales strategies, which have negatively impacted margins. This trend is expected to ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Adjustable-rate mortgages reach 35% share in 2Q26 at Century Communities
Rick Palacios Jr. highlights comments from the 2Q26 Century Communities earnings call indicating that adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) now make up 35% of mortgages at the company, compared to 30% ...
D.R. Horton lot costs increased 5% year over year, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. points out that land prices are often difficult to track due to a lack of transparent data. He refers to earnings commentary from D.R. Horton indicating that lot costs rose 5% ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: $1 million-plus homes outperform as stock market boosts luxury housing
Rick Palacios Jr. observes that homes priced at $1 million or more are outperforming other segments of the housing market. He attributes this trend partly to general house price inflation in ...
Austin single-family rent growth is still negative but improving, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. observes that single-family rent growth in Austin continues to be negative on a year-over-year basis, but the trend is steadily improving. He notes that, although rents have ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Methodology for analyzing housing market overpricing and underpricing
Rick Palacios Jr. details the methodology behind the Burns Under/Overpriced Market Index. The index measures the gap between a housing market’s current housing-cost-to-income ratio and its ...
Warsh leads Fed during rare soft landing, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. observes that Warsh is taking charge of the Federal Reserve while the economy is experiencing a soft landing. He highlights that such an outcome is unusual following periods of ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Public homebuilders slow land purchases as single-family starts drop
Rick Palacios Jr. reports that public homebuilders have recently reduced their activity in the land market. According to Palacios Jr., this trend is typically a directional indicator for ...
National housing affordability rising slowly, Rick Palacios Jr. notes
Rick Palacios Jr. notes that housing affordability has improved across the U.S. despite persistent high interest rates. This gradual improvement is attributed to increasing incomes and relatively ...
Rick Palacios Jr.: Homebuilders reduce single-family starts growth outlook for 2026
Rick Palacios Jr. reports that homebuilders surveyed at the start of 2026 anticipated 7 percent growth in single-family housing starts for the year. However, after being re-surveyed in May, their ...
