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Rick Palacios Jr.: Multiple shocks erase hopes for spring 2026 housing rebound
The U.S. housing market was already set for a difficult period before recent developments in war, oil prices, and interest rates.
Rick Palacios Jr. states that these factors have all converged at a critical time for homebuilders during the spring 2026 selling season, effectively wiping out prospects for a market rebound.
These pressures on the housing sector underscore trends observed in recent years, including the surge in adjustable-rate mortgage originations, particularly as ARMs accounted for 31 percent of California mortgage originations in 2025. Moreover, similar headwinds have prompted homebuilders to scale back new projects and offer incentives, a pattern detailed as the Atlanta Fed noted homebuilders slowing starts as buyers seek deals.
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