Global economics, currencies, and macroeconomic analysis by Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks: Markets remain calm despite rising anxiety over AI and debt concerns
Markets are currently calm despite rising anxiety over artificial intelligence and concerns about a potential debt blow-up. Robin Brooks, in a statement, noted that there was significant credit ...
U.S. yields decline while key data remains strong, Robin Brooks notes
Yields in the U.S. are falling even as data surprises remain near the top of their historical range. Robin Brooks stated that his 60-day rolling average of all major U.S. data surprises is ...
Robin Brooks: China posts another large trade surplus in September
China recorded another significant trade surplus in September. Robin Brooks described it as evidence that the country is not moving away from its export-led growth model, adding that the rest of ...
Market trajectory may depend on French elections, Robin Brooks notes
France has emerged as a significant idiosyncratic risk factor for markets, alongside oil prices. Robin Brooks said the key question is whether France will manage to continue operating until its ...
Robin Brooks: Dollar reaches strongest level against G10 since 'Liberation Day' in 2025
The U.S. dollar has risen sharply since August, now reaching its strongest level against G10 currencies since 'Liberation Day' in 2025. Robin Brooks attributed this rise to three temporary ...
Gold saw $65% jump last year but is flat in 2024, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks highlights that gold prices have been stable this year following a substantial $65% rise in the previous year. He attributes last year's surge to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts even ...
Robin Brooks: French bond sell-off not driven by Japanese flows
Robin Brooks is set to host his usual Saturday morning livestream at 9:30 a.m. ET, where he will address the recent sell-off in French government bonds and whether it is linked to Japanese ...
France real 10-year yield pulls even with U.S., Robin Brooks argues
Robin Brooks highlights that France's real 10-year bond yield has reached the same level as the U.S. yield. He notes that while the U.S. has a growth narrative to justify rising real yields, ...
Robin Brooks: Gold remains flat as market reduces October hike odds
Robin Brooks observes that gold prices have been steady even as market expectations for an interest rate hike in October have dropped significantly from 70% to 20%. Brooks attributes this to the ...
Brazilian Real recovery linked to capital inflows, Robin Brooks argues
Robin Brooks highlights that the Brazilian Real suffered significant losses when COVID hit and has yet to recover, largely due to a substantial outflow of capital that has not returned. He ...
Robin Brooks: U.S. Treasuries attract safe haven inflows as Euro zone turmoil rises
Robin Brooks discusses how the U.S. funds its current account and budget deficits in a recent live stream. He states that despite significant issues, the U.S. remains a relative safe haven in ...
Euro zone must allow default risk to curb poor fiscal policy, Robin Brooks argues
Robin Brooks calls for the euro zone to function as a true currency union by maintaining a credible risk of sovereign default. He warns that the current practice of the European Central Bank ...
Robin Brooks: ECB intervention in Euro zone yields fuels Northern European populist sentiment
Robin Brooks will hold his regular Saturday morning live stream tomorrow at 9 a.m. (ET) to discuss recent developments in Euro zone yields. Brooks states that while the ECB will intervene in ...
France 10-year yields surge above global trend, Robin Brooks warns
Robin Brooks highlights the onset of a debt crisis, emphasizing that such crises often begin in the most vulnerable regions. He points to the recent decoupling of France's 10-year bond yield, ...
Robin Brooks: Fed pushback and soft PCE data remove October hike from consideration
Robin Brooks highlights that recent signals from the Federal Reserve, including opposition from New York Fed President Williams and a dovish PCE reading, indicate that an interest rate hike in ...
Global bond sell-off worsens in September, Robin Brooks warns
Robin Brooks warns that the sell-off in the global bond market has intensified since August. He notes that, while earlier explanations pointed to thin liquidity as a cause, the situation has ...
Robin Brooks: Foreign inflows into U.S. equities linked to AI remain strong
Robin Brooks highlights substantial foreign inflows into U.S. equities, which he associates with the ongoing development in artificial intelligence. Despite significant investment over the past ...
Iranian currency and economy in freefall, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks highlights the ongoing economic collapse in Iran, noting the country's loss of control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz as its economy and currency experience severe declines. He ...
Robin Brooks: Gold and precious metals could benefit from positive catalysts
Robin Brooks announced that he will host his usual Saturday morning live stream tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. He plans to discuss the debasement trade under Kevin Warsh and highlighted that ...
ECB efforts cap spreads but yields rise across euro zone, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks points to an example of Goodhart's law unfolding in the euro zone, where the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented elaborate mechanisms to cap spreads. While these measures have ...
BRL price prediction: Robin Brooks expects $/BRL to reach 4.80 if Bolsonaro wins
Robin Brooks suggests that if Bolsonaro wins the election, the Brazilian Real could rapidly strengthen to $/BRL 4.80. He notes that in the first half of 2022, $/BRL nearly reached his ...
