Global economics, currencies, and macroeconomic analysis by Robin Brooks
Fed rate hike seen as unlikely this week, Robin Brooks argues
Robin Brooks highlights a consequential week ahead for markets, with attention focused on the Federal Reserve's possible moves. Brooks notes that markets are assigning a 40% probability to a 25 ...
Robin Brooks: Shadow yields enable Unicredit bid for Commerzbank in Euro zone
Robin Brooks draws attention to the issue of shadow yields in the Euro zone, emphasizing their significant impact on the financial landscape. According to Brooks, the only reason Unicredit is ...
Oil prices remain subdued despite geopolitical risks, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks raises questions about oil market dynamics, highlighting that despite several potential catalysts for higher prices—including actions by the Houthis, continued escalation of U.S. ...
Robin Brooks: Brent crude hits $100 as risk premium returns
Robin Brooks highlights that Brent crude has reached his near-term target of $100 amid renewed conflict involving Iran. He notes that a risk premium has returned to the price, but sees limited ...
Japan long-term yields could be 300 basis points higher without BoJ buying, Robin Brooks estimates
Robin Brooks questions how high Japan's long-term yields would be without ongoing bond purchases from the Bank of Japan, suggesting that a conservative estimate puts the difference at 300 basis ...
Robin Brooks: Iranian Rial weakens after U.S. blockade is imposed
Robin Brooks observes that the Iranian Rial significantly declines in value immediately after a U.S. blockade is put in place. He points out that this pattern has occurred both when the blockade ...
Oil could trade between $80 and $90 near term, Robin Brooks adds
Robin Brooks outlines potential scenarios for oil prices if current tensions escalate into a full-scale war. He states that the absolute peak for oil could be $125, regardless of inventory ...
Robin Brooks: Japan urges GPIF to repatriate funds amid FX intervention concerns
Robin Brooks comments that Japan's finance minister has called on the country's massive Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to repatriate funds. According to Brooks, this move is similar ...
Fed decision factors remain complex, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks will conduct a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. ET to discuss the range of indicators considered by the U.S. Federal Reserve when deciding on interest rate hikes. Brooks ...
Robin Brooks: Fall in oil prices premature as risk premium needed
Robin Brooks points out that the recent decline in oil prices was premature. He highlights that Iran's hardliners were always expected to attempt to undermine the peace deal, and recent events ...
U.S. shifts to net crude exporter for first time in May 2026, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks reports that the U.S. shifted from being a major net importer of crude to becoming a net exporter for the first time in recent memory in May 2026. According to Brooks, U.S. crude ...
Robin Brooks: Dollar remains elevated despite sharp oil price decline
Robin Brooks points out a disconnect in current market behavior, noting that while higher oil prices previously strengthened the Dollar, recent sharp declines in oil have not caused a ...
Markets have not returned to pre-war status quo despite oil price reversal, Robin Brooks argues
Robin Brooks observes that oil prices have returned to their pre-war levels. However, he notes that other financial markets have not reverted to their previous state, which he considers a sign of ...
Robin Brooks: Fed balance sheet reduction seen as unlikely to be significant
Robin Brooks questions the credibility of discussions around significant reductions in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. He notes that previous episodes of quantitative tightening were ...
Oil prices fall as Fed stance perceived hawkish and weak payrolls reported, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks highlights that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has almost fully normalized. According to Brooks, this normalization means oil markets are returning to a focus on ...
Robin Brooks: Yen continues to weaken despite potential for Japan intervention
Robin Brooks highlights the ongoing decline of the Japanese yen, even as markets are aware that Japan might intervene to stabilize its currency. He suggests that when intervention does occur, it ...
Yen falls below 2024 intervention levels, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks highlights that Japan's recent currency interventions have been substantial but ultimately ineffective. The yen is now weaker than it was in 2024, which marked the previous ...
Robin Brooks: Dollar positioning is strong against Yen, Pound and Canada, not Euro
Robin Brooks observes that market positioning currently shows a significant long stance on the Dollar, but not against the Euro as is typically seen. He notes that speculative positioning is now ...
Yen threatens deeper losses without intervention, Robin Brooks warns
Robin Brooks highlights that the Yen has dropped below its 2024 low versus the Dollar. He suggests that without the ongoing threat of intervention, the exchange rate could be 170 or higher. Brooks ...
Robin Brooks: Brent crude remains at $73 as markets absorb Strait of Hormuz risks
Robin Brooks highlights that isolated attacks from Iran on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz were anticipated as it reopens. He observes that the market has fully accounted for these risks, ...
Gold moves inversely with real U.S. rates as oil and inflation drop, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks highlights that gold prices tend to move in the opposite direction of real U.S. interest rates. He explains that recent increases in real rates are being driven by expectations of a ...
