Global economics, currencies, and macroeconomic analysis by Robin Brooks
Current trend in long-term yields reflects fiscal issues, Robin Brooks notes
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have remained elevated despite a decline in shorter-term yields, according to Robin Brooks. Brooks described recent movements as evidence that fiscal stress, rather ...
Robin Brooks: Big U.S. deficits, not AI, explain high long-term yields
Robin Brooks argued that large U.S. deficits, rather than the AI buildout, are responsible for high long-term yields. He points to a recent development where the 10y10y forward yield is flat, ...
Vice President Vance tweet blamed war for Republican midterm losses, Robin Brooks notes
Brent crude oil prices fell by almost 7 percent following a tweet from Vice President Vance blaming the war for significant Republican losses in the U.S. midterms. Robin Brooks shared this ...
Robin Brooks: Brent oil falls to $102 as market focuses on Iran conflict and U.S. politics
Brent crude oil has dropped to $102 from $118 at the end of last week, with the market's movement linked to developments in the ongoing conflict involving Iran and uncertainty over U.S. political ...
Global markets depend on oil volatility, Robin Brooks notes
Oil is currently the key force shaping global markets, according to Robin Brooks. Brooks said that since the war with Iran began on the night of February 27, the direction of financial markets has ...
Robin Brooks: Brent futures roll to new contract brings price below $110
Brent crude fell below $110 after the market shifted to a new front-month futures contract. Robin Brooks explained that a similar decline occurred in early April when the front-month future rolled ...
A 10% rise in Brent may result in gold dropping 4% and silver 8%, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks said that gold and silver could see further downside if there is a return to a "hot" war in the coming days. According to Brooks, a 10% increase in Brent would be associated with a 4% ...
Robin Brooks: Iranian Rial hits new all-time low amid concerns over potential U.S. bombing campaign
The Iranian Rial fell to a new all-time low, according to Robin Brooks. Brooks stated that if the U.S. bombing campaign resumes in the coming days, which he considers very likely, it would add ...
Dated Brent aligns with front-month futures, Robin Brooks notes
Dated Brent crude oil converged with the front-month futures price for the first time since September 10, the date of the East-West pipeline attack. Robin Brooks said markets remain concerned ...
Robin Brooks: Foreigners bought record French debt after oil price fall, trade affected by Sep. 10 pipeline attack
Foreign investors bought record amounts of French debt following the signing of a memorandum of understanding in June and a drop in oil prices, in what was seen as a bet that oil prices would ...
Fed meeting outcome expected to be neutral for markets, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks said that with no interest rate hike expected at tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting, the central bank is likely to deliver a broadly neutral message for markets. Brooks added that ...
Robin Brooks: Recent French debt yield spike tied to oil prices and carry trade unwind
Recent movements in French debt yields are linked to rising oil prices and a carry trade unwind following substantial inflows into French debt in June. Robin Brooks said that, for France, these ...
ECB could aid France in crisis, Robin Brooks notes
Robin Brooks indicated that the European Central Bank (ECB) may support France if its situation deteriorates. He referenced the ECB's 2022 intervention to cap Italian and Spanish yields, noting ...
Robin Brooks: Crude imports and Gulf supply return to pre-war levels in Asia
Imports of crude oil have returned to pre-war levels across key Asian economies and supply from the Gulf region has also normalized. Robin Brooks said that this means the recent increase in Brent ...
Iranian rial reaches a new low as attacks escalate, Robin Brooks notes
The Iranian rial reached a new all-time low against the dollar, coinciding with headlines about increased Iranian and Houthi attacks impacting oil prices. Robin Brooks argued that the reason for ...
Robin Brooks: Oil exports from Persian Gulf return to normal as shipping costs impact prices
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to normal levels after recent disruptions. Robin Brooks stated that the continued elevation in oil prices is due to a sharp increase in shipping ...
Exports to Russia rerouted via Turkey offset direct declines, Robin Brooks notes
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, direct exports from Italy and Germany to Russia fell, but this reduction was offset by increased shipments to transshipment hubs such as Turkey. Robin Brooks ...
Robin Brooks: AI debt concerns keep French bond yields from rising further
French 10-year government bond yields remain at elevated levels, but would be even higher if not for worries over AI-related debt, according to Robin Brooks. Brooks argued that while global ...
VIX spike on S&P 500 options seen as minor, Robin Brooks notes
The VIX, which measures option implied volatility for the S&P 500 in the month ahead, spiked on Friday amid concerns over potential write-downs of AI-related debt. Robin Brooks described this ...
Robin Brooks: Markets remain calm despite rising anxiety over AI and debt concerns
Markets are currently calm despite rising anxiety over artificial intelligence and concerns about a potential debt blow-up. Robin Brooks, in a statement, noted that there was significant credit ...
U.S. yields decline while key data remains strong, Robin Brooks notes
Yields in the U.S. are falling even as data surprises remain near the top of their historical range. Robin Brooks stated that his 60-day rolling average of all major U.S. data surprises is ...
