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Yields in the U.S. are falling even as data surprises remain near the top of their historical range. Robin Brooks stated that his 60-day rolling average of all major U.S. data surprises is represented by the blue line, reflecting ongoing strength in U.S. activity. He also mentioned potential AI-related jitters in the stock market, but described the overall activity picture as solid.
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Brooks has commented on global yield trends in prior analyses. Earlier this year, he noted that France's real 10-year yield matched that of the U.S., linking the alignment to European Central Bank policy. He has also assessed economic pressures beyond the U.S., recently highlighting Iran’s ongoing currency and economic crisis.