Suspicious Polymarket bets detected ahead of U.S. election poll releases
Researchers at Vanderbilt University identified suspicious trades on prediction markets shortly before political polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College were published. One Polymarket user earned more than $77,000 after placing a large bet on a U.S. senator's reelection ahead of the poll results.
According to The New York Times, unusual trading activity preceded the release of two election polls. Researchers have raised the possibility that nonpublic information was used, although there is currently no evidence that such information was obtained.Polymarket confirmed that it had identified the trades and launched an investigation. Representatives of rival platform Kalshi declined to comment.
Trader bets nearly $200,000 before poll release
According to researchers, an unidentified trader placed a bet of nearly $200,000 on Polymarket on October 31, backing the reelection of Republican Senator Pete Ricketts of Nebraska.
Approximately one hour later, The New York Times and Siena College published poll results showing Ricketts leading the race.
As a result, the trader made a profit of more than $77,000. According to the newspaper, the user also made similar large trades on other markets, including Kalshi.
Brett Goldstein, a representative of Vanderbilt University's Institute of National Security, said the combination of circumstances was difficult to explain as a coincidence.
In his view, the activity warrants further investigation. However, researchers have not established whether the trader actually had access to the poll results before their official release.
Prediction markets face questions over access to information
The suspicious transactions have attracted attention amid other investigations into the alleged use of confidential information to place bets on political events.
In April, U.S. authorities charged service member Gannon Kane Van Dyke, who prosecutors allege earned more than $400,000 on Polymarket using classified information about a U.S. operation in Venezuela.
Investigators allege that he participated in planning the January 2026 operation to capture Nicolás Maduro and used the information to place bets on his removal from power. The charges do not constitute a finding of guilt.
The expansion of political prediction markets has intensified debate over their transparency. Prices on these platforms are increasingly used to gauge expectations about U.S. elections, although they can be influenced by the actions of individual large traders.
Earlier, we reported that prediction markets are becoming an additional source of information for investors and risk management professionals. These platforms help assess participants' expectations about future events, but their prices do not guarantee accurate forecasts.
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