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Jack Clark notes new analysis challenges his 2028 RSI projection
Industry experts are engaging in a debate over the pace of progress toward reaching 60 percent Robustly Safe Intelligence (RSI) by the end of 2028.
Jack Clark referenced a detailed analysis by @sudoraohacker, who provided benchmarks that suggest a more cautious outlook. While Clark remains optimistic about his earlier projection, the counterpoint finds a 10-year timeframe more realistic for achieving this milestone. The discussion underscores the complexity of forecasting advancements in artificial intelligence and the divergent expectations within the field.
Clark recently announced that Import AI would skip a week as he prepares a major essay on AI progress for the next issue. The decision to delay publication comes as debate continues over forecasting safe AI development milestones. Clark’s forthcoming analysis is expected to address some of these ongoing questions.
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