EС Markets review: Broker sees equities rising as traders price in October Fed rate cut
EC Markets’ latest economic report highlights a week dominated by political uncertainty, mixed data, and diverging trends across global economies.
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In the United States, a prolonged government shutdown entered its third week, delaying crucial economic data and clouding the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Despite this, markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut during the upcoming October 29–30 FOMC meeting. Inflation in September rose slightly above expectations at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, hinting at persistent price pressures. Meanwhile, China’s Q3 GDP met forecasts at 4.8% year-on-year but reflected sluggish consumer activity, while Japan reported steady inflation and political stability following party leadership talks.
Market performance: equities gain as bonds ease and commodities fluctuate
Equity markets rallied globally as investors embraced the prospect of looser monetary policy. In the U.S., major indices hit new records, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging their strongest gains since summer. European stocks advanced modestly, buoyed by energy and luxury shares, while Asian markets were mixed — Hong Kong rebounded on tech strength, and Japan lagged due to yen weakness.
Bond yields generally declined: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered near 4.0%, while German bunds and UK gilts rallied on dovish central bank sentiment. Commodities saw uneven movement — oil rebounded from five-month lows amid OPEC+ speculation, while gold, though slightly lower, remained near historic highs above $4,100 per ounce.
Outlook: policy meetings and data releases to steer sentiment
Looking ahead, EC Markets expects traders to focus on upcoming economic data and central bank meetings. The Fed and ECB are both set to meet next week, with policymakers likely maintaining a cautious stance amid fragile growth and contained inflation. In Asia, China’s end-October PMI data will offer key insights into manufacturing and services activity, potentially influencing stimulus expectations.
Commodity markets will also be sensitive to developments from U.S.-China trade talks in South Korea and OPEC+ decisions. EC Markets notes that while political risks and data uncertainty remain, strong corporate earnings and dovish monetary signals continue to support risk appetite heading into November.
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