Brent crude consolidates as increased tanker traffic via Strait of Hormuz keeps markets cautious

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Brent crude up 0.36% at $73.43

Highlights

Washington’s 60-day waiver for Iranian oil exports adds short-term supply, pressuring Brent crude sentiment lower.
Rising tanker throughput in the Strait of Hormuz signals alleviated shipping constraints, enhancing global oil market liquidity.
Brent trades in a consolidation phase near resistance at $74.16, with mixed momentum and a 58% probability of moving lower in the $71.33–$75.53 range over 2–3 days.

Supply picture improves as US waiver and shipping ease flow

Washington’s decision to grant a 60-day waiver allowing Iranian oil sales, as reported by Bez Kabli, introduces additional supply to the global crude market and has shaped recent sentiment around Brent crude. In parallel, increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNBC, reflects fewer shipping constraints and further supports the flow of oil to world markets. Both developments point to a more ample short-term supply picture, which is influencing the market context for Brent.

Mixed momentum as intraday buying meets key resistance

On the technical side, XBR remains above its MA-20 at $73.12, but below both the MA-50 at $75.07 and the MA-200 at $80.73. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $74.16 currently acts as immediate resistance. Among key indicators, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a strong sell, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, indicating uncertain trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.27, suggesting mild selling bias, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral and the Stochastic RSI flags overbought short-term conditions. Bull/Bear Power points to strong intraday buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, highlighting inconsistency in momentum signals.

Downside bias persists amid range-bound price outlook

Looking ahead, XBR is expected to trade between $71.33 and $75.53 over the next several sessions, reflecting typical volatility for the asset. The baseline scenario anticipates continued consolidation within this band, with a moderate upside probability of 42% and a higher likelihood of downward movement at 58%. A sustained breakout above $74.16 would be needed to trigger a bullish shift, while a close below $71.33 would open the door to further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union analyst, sees the Brent market responding to regulatory developments and logistics. He notes supply-side pressures from the US waiver on Iranian exports and easier flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Technicals are mixed, with no momentum confirmation yet. "Until Brent clears $74.16, the cautious base case is continued range trading with a risk of further downside."

In a recent review, analysts noted that easing geopolitical risks and improved supply flows were driving a calmer outlook for Brent crude markets. With new U.S. waivers and increased Hormuz tanker activity now shaping near-term sentiment, traders should focus on the $74.16 resistance as a pivotal level for confirming any upside momentum.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.