Gold price forecast: $4,000–$4,065 range as XAU maintains balance

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Gold gains 0.63% today to $4,033

Highlights

Global central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for three years, led predominantly by China’s purchases.
Persistent central bank demand buffers gold against short-term volatility, as geopolitical risks and US economic data drive speculative positioning.
Gold trades with a bullish short- to mid-term technical tone, consolidating between $4,000 and $4,065 with 62% probability of an upward move.

Central bank buying and geopolitical risk drive persistent gold demand

Global central banks have continued to purchase gold at record levels, with Seekingalpha reporting that more than 1,000 tonnes have been added to reserves annually for three consecutive years, primarily driven by activity in China. This steady institutional demand provides a consistent backdrop of support for gold, regardless of short-term market fluctuations. In addition, market uncertainties involving the US and Iran, as well as expectations around upcoming US non-farm payrolls data and potential liquidity effects, have influenced investor interest and contributed to ongoing adjustments in speculative positioning.

Mixed technical momentum amid bullish support and divergent indicators

On the technical front, XAU is holding above the MA-20 at $3,998 and the MA-50 at $4,008 on the hourly chart, while still trading below the MA-200 at $4,639 on the daily chart. Immediate support is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $4,012. Among the indicators, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a strong sell, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is elevated at 62.87 (Buy), the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also points to buy conditions, and both Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power are overbought, reflecting persistent buyer control intraday. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, and a notable divergence between oscillator signals suggests a mixed market environment.

Consolidation favored as odds tilt toward upside in volatile band

Over the next two to three trading days, the anticipated volatility band for XAU is between $4,000 and $4,065. The base case projects consolidation within this corridor, with a 62% likelihood for an upward move and a 38% probability for a decline. An upside breakout would require clearing resistance above the current range, while sustained weakness below the immediate support at $4,012 could open the way for further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold supported by robust central bank buying and persistent geopolitical tensions. He notes that the technical picture is mixed, with some indicators flashing caution despite steady institutional demand. Kharitonov remains wary of potential downside if immediate support levels fail. "Until $4,012 holds, I remain cautious and prefer to wait for clearer price action before considering a directional trade."

Earlier, analysts noted that investor interest in gold has been supported by regulatory and market factors, with technical signals pointing to a period of consolidation. The current environment, marked by sustained central bank buying and intraday overbought conditions, suggests traders should monitor for a potential upside breakout above $4,065 as the key risk in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.