Brent crude price forecast: $69.94 support in focus as XBR drops 1.83%

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Brent crude falls 1.83% to $72.06

Highlights

Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities, including attacks on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, have heightened geopolitical risk for Brent crude flows.
OFAC's General License X now temporarily authorizes transactions for Iranian crude production, sale, and delivery, affecting supply channels and legal clarity.
Brent crude faces sustained bearish momentum, trading below key moving averages with a high probability of further downside toward $69.94–$74.18 in the coming sessions.

Geopolitical escalation and new US license reshape Brent flows

Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran have escalated, with Iran firing on a container ship as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz, followed by strikes on Iranian military targets and American assets in Bahrain and Kuwait. The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License X on June 22, 2026, which authorizes transactions related to the production, sale, and delivery of crude oil and petroleum products of Iranian origin. These actions have intensified geopolitical risks and affected legal and logistical pathways for Brent crude flows, according to Mondaq.

Downside momentum prevails as resistance zones contain price action

On the technical front, XBR remains below the $73.44 (MA-20) and $73.57 (MA-50) levels on the H4 chart, as well as the $80.98 (MA-200) level on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun is situated at $73.25 and now serves as immediate resistance. Momentum readings are negative, with both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator flagging further downside, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) continues to register as neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 33.21, and indicators such as Stochastic RSI, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Bull/Bear Power all signal oversold conditions.

High downside risk persists amid low odds of bullish reversal

In the near term, XBR is likely to fluctuate within a band defined by $69.94 on the downside and $74.18 on the upside, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of an upward breakout is judged to be very low at this time, while downside risk remains high. Baseline expectations point to consolidation near these bounds, with a bullish reversal only likely if price reclaims $73.25 and breaks local resistance. A move below $69.94 would open the door to sharper declines if selling accelerates further.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that escalation in US-Iran tensions and recent OFAC actions are reshaping fundamental and macro conditions for Brent. He sees heightened geopolitical risk and evolving legal frameworks keeping traders on edge. Despite technical momentum turning negative, he remains attentive to stabilization as prices consolidate near $69.94–$74.18. Karapetjanc believes the market could regain its footing with a recovery above $73.25. "If Brent can reclaim key resistance and the news backdrop stabilizes, upside potential will quickly return to the spotlight," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Brent crude was exhibiting persistent bearish signals and remained pressured by weak sentiment in the absence of a meaningful risk premium. The escalation of geopolitical tensions alongside oversold technical conditions now amplifies volatility risks, making the potential for a sharp move—particularly if support at $69.94 is breached—a critical focal point for traders.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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